ChainLinks 2012 Retail Forecast Report–9 pages of expanding retailers and restaurants!

Thank you ChainLinks!  In addition to the market insight, they provide over 9 pages of new store development expansion information for expanding retailers and restaurants throughout the United States.  I thought this would be helpful to anyone (brokers, owners, attorneys, etc.) looking to lease their shopping centers, canvassing for new tenant representation accounts, or just to get a handle on today’s retail real estate market condition.  A link to the report is here and the text of the report is pasted below for easy access to search engines:  Best of luck to YOU all in 2012! 

ChainLinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report 2012 Forecast
Matt Kircher
ChainLinks President
650.931.2220
mkircher@terranomics.com
Garrick H. Brown
ChainLinks Research Director
916.329.1558
gbrown@terranomics.com
Brought to you by:
2012 Retail Forecast
Welcome to ChainLinks 2012 Retail Forecast Report. This
report not only contains our forecast for the national retail real
estate market in 2012, but also includes a statistical summary
of the activity that we witnessed during the third quarter of 2011
and detailed expansion plans of just a few of the retailers that
we are tracking throughout our 60+ offices across nearly every
major market in the United States.
2011 Holiday Sales Season Forecast
Before we focus on this year’s coming holiday sales season,
let’s recap what happened last year. Heading into the 2010
holiday sales season, analysts were generally skeptical about
retail sales. Luxury retailers had only seen a return to positive
monthly same-store comparables in September. Prior to that,
many had endured as many as 18 consecutive months of
double digit monthly declines. Consumer confidence was in
the 50’s—well below the historical average of 95 and the most
recent ranking (October 2011) of 71.8.
Last year, groups as diverse as the International Council of
Shopping Centers (ICSC) and the National Retail Federation
(NRF) were predicting that holiday sales would only increase
by about 2.5%. Then, the unexpected happened. Consumers
showed up. By early December, most think-tanks were
upwardly revising their forecasts. By mid-December it was
clear that nearly everyone had underestimated just how much
the American consumer would spend. Depending upon the
data source, we closed the 2010 holiday sales season with
sales increases in the 5% to 6% range.
As important as this was in terms of the general economy,
what occurred next was even more critical to retail real estate;
retailers significantly upped their growth plans. Retailers had
already been increasing expansion plans over the virtually
non-existent levels of 2009, but this had primarily been driven
by discounters and other concepts that had benefited from
the newfound frugality of the American consumer. Following
Christmas 2010, we saw middle-of-the-road and luxury
concepts getting back in the game. We also saw discounters
adding extra units to their growth plans. Prior to the 2010
holiday sales season, retail requirements had been up about
20% over 2009 levels. By February 2011, requirements were
up over 40% above the past year’s levels.
The surprising success of the 2010 holiday sales season was
one of the driving forces behind keeping occupancy growth
in the black this year. Retailer sentiment remained high
through the annual ICSC ReCon event in Las Vegas this past
May, when many retailers further bolstered growth plans in
the face of an economic outlook that looked to be improving.
This, unfortunately, only lasted until the debt ceiling/credit
downgrade debacle of August. As the economic outlook
darkened with uncertainty and fears of a double-dip recession,
retailers began to pull back on planned expansion. At the very
least, those who did not trim their number of planned new
units, were suddenly taking much longer to get deals done.
While we are now past the worst of this late summer swoon,
the economic outlook remains extremely cloudy at best. Most
economists have downgraded job growth and GDP forecasts
for the coming year; the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will
likely morph into a European recession and retailers continue
to trim growth plans.
That being said, the impact of last year’s holiday shopping
season cannot be understated. It was a catalyst behind a
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
significant amount of retail growth throughout the United States
over the past year. Now, it may be true that most of this growth
was mitigated by just a few major retailer bankruptcies (as we
will discuss later in this report), however, we are firm in our
conviction that the impact of last year’s holiday season is what
sent us on a positive trajectory for 2011.
Despite the fact that economic uncertainty dominated the
landscape throughout the majority of the third quarter of this
year, it was only in the third quarter that we finally saw vacancy
levels moving downward. Growth over the first half of the year
was largely cancelled out by just the Borders and Blockbuster
vacancies. Other, smaller retail failures thrown into the mix
certainly didn’t help. But overall, what we saw was minor
increases in demand from most of the marketplace, swallowed
up by a few big failures. So where does this leave us heading
into the 2011 holiday shopping season?
The Death of Black Friday
First, retail real estate statistics aside, the impact of “Black
Friday” is slowly slipping away. As this report went to press,
Black Friday 2011 numbers were not yet available. However,
we were seeing trends that seem to suggest that Black Friday’s
days may be numbered as more and more retailers are pushing
up their opening times. This year, Target, Best Buy, Kohl’s and
Macy’s all opened their stores at midnight to accommodate
early holiday shoppers. Abercrombie & Fitch, Justice, Hollister,
Ann Taylor, The Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, GameStop
and dozens of other chains also followed suit with many of their
locations. But a number of retailers have taken things even
farther. Both Toys R Us and Walmart opened stores as early as
9 PM on Thanksgiving night.
While this has created some backlash (a Target employee
started an online petition to urge the Minneapolis-based retailer
to return to opening stores no earlier than 5 AM on Black Friday
so that employees could still enjoy their Thanksgiving holiday—
it garnered over 190,000 signatures in less than a week),
the reality is that consumers have continued to show up in
record numbers at ungodly hours to get an early jump on their
holiday shopping.
It may take a year or two, but we expect the majority of retailers
and shopping centers to eventually be open on Thanksgiving
Day. It already is one of the busiest days of the year for movie
theaters and many restaurant chains (an estimated 14 million
Americans ate out this Thanksgiving). With retailers facing ever
more intense competition from both online retailers and one
another and consumers continuing to demonstrate that they
are willing to show up earlier to cash in on deals, we see it as
only a matter of time before Thanksgiving Day becomes the
new Black Friday.
But even as the importance of Black Friday seems to be fading
into the past, the question remains how will the market perform
this year? The predictions from ICSC and the NRF have, so
far, been in the 2.5% to 3.0% increase range. Of course, the
problem in this negative media cycle has been that many media
outlets have run with stories that headline “reduced growth
ahead.” The problem with this is that even these projections
are looking towards sales growth. They just don’t see sales
growth matching the level of increase we saw last year. Yet,
to the uneducated reader, many of these articles would seem
to paint a picture of declining sales revenues… not increasing
sales revenues that are simply not living up to last year’s
surprising results.
Yet, we think these numbers are low to begin with. First off,
the projections of the major think-tanks are right back to
where they were last year. That being said, this year we have
concerns over the Eurozone, political dysfunction and a whole
new palette of issues plaguing the economy. But, one year ago
there was a similar set of issues hanging over the economy…
in fact, they were issues that were actually more prescient than
our current crisis of confidence driven issues. And, despite all
of these challenges, we are actually heading into this holiday
shopping season with higher levels of consumer confidence
than where we were last year.
We expect sales gains this year to be in the 3.5% to 4.0%
range. The year-over-year increase will not be as high as
last year’s jump, but these numbers will still translate into a
relatively strong holiday shopping season. We are more bullish
in our forecast than the NRF or ICSC, although we are not as
optimistic (though we hope they are right) as Customer Growth
Partners, a research group that recently published a report
forecasting 6.5% annual sales growth.
But regardless of whether our more positive forecast turns out
to be true, this does not necessarily mean that this will translate
into a surge of retailer demand this year. In fact, our informal
polling of retailers is telling us that they are in a much more
conservative state of mind this year. The reality is that most
economists and most retailers are expecting 2012 to be a year
of slow, grinding growth thanks to the implications of both the
likely European recession and the continued ineffectiveness
of our government (which will be exacerbated by a gridlocked
election year) to create any sort of economic policy relief. Of
course, the political issues go deeper than this, to the fear
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
that political dysfunction may actually derail the economy. It
certainly threatened to do so this summer, so many see it as a
looming potential issue… at least through November 2012. So
while we see a strong holiday sales season ahead, we do not
see the same surge in retailer demand occurring that happened
last year.
So where does this leave us?
Retailer Demand Survey
We recently completed our quarterly retailer demand survey,
which asks over 600 top retail brokers in over 50 markets
nationally to rank current retailer demand on a scale of one
(reflecting the lowest levels of demand possible) to ten (reflecting
the highest levels of demand possible).
While the national average of retailer demand remained stable
at a ranking of seven—indicating levels of retailer demand that
are slightly above average, we did see a number of cracks in the
façade that our brokers at the local level reported to us. First
off, one almost unanimous response was that deals were taking
longer to get done. Retailers have responded to big picture
economic uncertainty with caution. Secondly, urban levels of
demand were immensely higher than those that we are seeing
in suburban marketplaces.
Markets that saw no movement in retailer demand included;
Albuquerque, Atlanta, Baltimore, Birmingham, Dallas, Denver,
Detroit, Indianapolis, Inland Empire, Las Vegas, Miami, New
Orleans, New York, North New Jersey, Oakland/East Bay,
Omaha, Orange County (CA), Orlando, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh,
Portland (OR), Salt Lake City, San Diego, San Francisco, San
Jose/South Bay, St. Louis and Tampa/St. Petersburg.
Markets that saw improvement in retailer demand include;
Austin, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Des Moines, Jacksonville,
Kansas City, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Nashville,
Oklahoma City, Phoenix, Raleigh/Durham, Sacramento, San
Antonio, Seattle, Tucson and Washington DC.
Markets that saw retailer demand drop included; Charleston
(SC), Cincinnati, Cleveland, Houston, Little Rock, Louisville,
Memphis, Mobile, Newport News/Norfolk, Hampton Roads, San
Jose/South Bay and Tulsa.
2012 Retail Forecast
We expect retail vacancies to continue to fall over the coming
year at an extremely slow pace. Though we do expect a strong
holiday shopping season, we expect retailers to be in cautious
growth mode throughout the majority of 2012.
Retailer expansion will be dominated once again by discounters
and grocery store chains, as well as new fast casual restaurant
concepts. But discounter expansion (with the exception of dollar
stores) may begin to slow by year-end, if for no other reason than
players like TJX or Ross have already been in aggressive growth
mode for a couple of years now and prime second-generation
sites are becoming harder to find. Meanwhile, grocery growth will
come mostly in the form of smaller format stores in the 20,000 to
40,000 square foot range. Even while discount, luxury/organic
and ethnic themed grocery chains will be expanding with these
smaller footprints, we will see increasing consolidation from
unionized, mid-priced regional chains that will be returning
stores (typically in the 50,000 to 80,000 square foot range) to
the marketplace. While fast food and fast casual chains will
continue to expand, we also expect casual dining chains (with
a few exceptions) to continue to contract. Meanwhile, retailers
in the middle will continue to be squeezed. While The Gap and
Christopher & Banks have announced plans to close hundreds
of stores between them in the coming year, we suspect there will
be more. Meanwhile, mom-and-pop retail will largely continue
to out of the picture until home prices stabilize (home equity
loans remain the primary initial source of funding for small retail
startups). Meanwhile, even as growth continues to be tempered
by economic headwinds, we will also continue to see retailers
shrinking their footprints.
The bad news is that we don’t expect retailer demand and
leasing activity to increase above this year’s levels in the
year ahead.
The good news is that we also don’t expect retailer bankruptcies
and failures to take as severe a toll in 2012 as they did in 2011.
Retail shopping center vacancy throughout the United States
stood at 9.3% as of the close of the third quarter. Vacancy levels
over the first half of 2011 had remained firm at 9.4% despite
strong leasing activity. The failures of Borders and Blockbuster
alone translated into nearly 12 million square feet of space
being returned to the marketplace—mitigating nearly all of
the growth the market recorded over the first half of the year.
These, of course, weren’t the only bankruptcies impacting the
market, but retail closures continued to keep pace with growth
over the first six months of 2011. It was only in the third quarter
that the market finally began to see some movement in overall
vacancy rates.
While we expect retailer bankruptcies to diminish in 2012, they
will remain an issue. Throughout 2011, retail failures largely
mitigated what would have been respectable growth levels. As
of the close of the third quarter, year-to-date shopping center
absorption stood above 12 million square feet. Take just the
failure of Borders and Blockbuster out of the mix and this
number would have doubled.
Looking forward, we continue to have strong concerns over
mid-priced retail chains. Consumer shopping patterns have
diverged to the extremes; luxury retail is back for the higherend
consumer and discount retail is flourishing. Across every
segment of the retail industry, it is the mid-priced retailer who is
suffering most. Middle-class consumers have downsized and
there are no signs that the new frugality will end any time soon.
Chains caught in the middle will be where the most contraction
occurs and though we don’t expect retail closures to approach
last year’s levels, they will continue to mitigate growth across the
board. Vacancy will shrink in 2012, but it will be at a slow pace,
measured more by basis points than by percentage points.
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
Retailer Demand Survey
2Q 2010 3Q 2010 4Q 2010 1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011
Albuquerque NM 4 4 4 5 5 5
Atlanta GA 5 5 6 6 6 6
Austin TX 3 3 4 5 5 6
Baltimore MD 6 6 7 8 8 8
Birmingham AL 4 4 4 6 6 6
Boston MA 7 7 7 8 8 9
Charlotte NC 4 4 4 5 5 6
Charleston SC 4 4 4 5 5 4
Chicago IL 3 4 4 5 5 6
Cincinnati OH 5 5 5 6 6 5
Cleveland OH 2 3 5 6 6 5
Dallas TX 4 5 6 6 6 7
Denver CO 4 4 4 5 5 5
Des Moines IA 3 3 3 4 4 6
Detroit MI 5 5 5 5 6 6
Houston TX 4 5 6 8 8 6
Indianapolis IN 4 4 4 5 5 5
Inland Empire CA 4 4 4 5 5 5
Jacksonville FL 4 4 4 4 4 5
Kansas City MO 5 5 5 7 7 8
Las Vegas NV 2 3 4 5 6 6
Little Rock AR 4 4 5 6 7 5
Los Angeles CA 6 6 7 8 8 9
Louisville KY 7 7 7 8 8 7
Memphis TN 4 5 6 8 8 7
Miami/Dade County FL 5 5 5 6 6 6
Milwaukee WI 2 2 2 3 3 5
Minneapolis MN 2 2 3 4 4 6
Mobile, AL 4 4 5 7 8 7
Nashville TN 4 4 5 6 8 9
New Orleans LA 3 3 3 3 3 3
New York City NY 7 8 8 8 8 8
Newport News/Norfolk/Hampton Roads VA 3 3 4 4 5 4
North New Jersey 5 5 6 7 7 7
Oakland/East Bay CA 5 6 7 7 7 7
Oklahoma City OK 5 5 5 5 5 6
Omaha NE 2 2 4 5 6 6
Orange County CA 6 6 6 7 8 8
Orlando FL 5 5 5 5 5 5
Philadelphia PA 5 5 7 7 7 7
Phoenix AZ 2 2 3 4 4 6
Pittsburgh PA 7 7 8 9 9 9
Portland, OR 4 4 5 6 6 6
Raleigh/Durham NC 3 3 3 3 3 8
Sacramento CA 2 3 3 3 4 5
Salt Lake City UT 3 4 4 5 5 5
San Antonio TX 4 5 5 6 6 7
San Diego CA 6 7 8 8 8 8
San Francisco CA 5 6 7 8 8 8
San Jose/South Bay CA 5 6 6 7 7 6
Santa Barbara CA 6 7 8 8 8 8
Seattle CA 3 4 6 7 7 8
St. Louis MO 3 5 6 7 7 7
Tampa/St. Petersburg FL 6 6 6 6 6 6
Tucson AZ 2 2 3 3 3 4
Tulsa OK 6 6 6 7 7 6
Washington, DC 6 6 7 8 8 9
NATIONAL AVERAGE 4 5 6 6 7 7
* 1 = Lowest retail demand, 10 = Highest retail demand
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
All Non-Freestanding Retail
Date
Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under Const
SF
Quoted
Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % Rates
2011 3q 5,069,201,889 457,504,675 473,335,738 9.3% 5,851,061 3,954,187 11,895,901 $14.39
2011 2q 5,065,247,702 457,617,631 475,232,612 9.4% 3,332,889 3,150,238 13,532,383 $16.67
2011 1q 5,062,097,464 458,033,472 475,415,263 9.4% 3,399,428 4,702,934 13,201,909 $17.01
2010 4q 5,057,394,530 456,989,483 474,111,757 9.4% 10,817,591 4,772,447 15,160,219 $16.82
2010 3q 5,052,622,083 462,013,427 480,156,901 9.5% 8,340,028 3,410,161 17,102,928 $17.52
2010 2q 5,049,211,922 465,558,527 485,086,768 9.6% 7,727,757 5,616,181 17,563,750 $17.66
2010 1q 5,043,595,741 466,297,255 487,198,344 9.7% 719,155 5,635,231 19,385,680 $17.94
2009 4q 5,037,960,510 460,073,427 482,282,268 9.6% 5,167,457 11,426,531 19,860,548 $18.31
2009 3q 5,026,815,183 453,893,597 476,027,894 9.5% 1,480,502 15,680,085 27,399,864 $18.79
2009 2q 5,011,135,098 438,695,345 461,828,311 9.2% (8,464,517) 12,055,286 38,185,547 $18.87
2009 1q 4,999,079,812 415,019,402 441,308,508 8.8% (15,375,068) 21,387,453 44,145,750 $19.45
2008 4q 4,977,692,359 383,794,975 404,545,987 8.1% 7,371,705 32,290,097 56,323,050 $19.66
2008 3q 4,945,402,262 365,724,488 379,627,595 7.7% 19,747,481 28,636,091 77,450,844 $19.49
2008 2q 4,916,766,171 356,312,841 370,738,985 7.5% 9,118,006 23,801,827 92,177,317 $19.44
2008 1q 4,892,964,344 341,802,157 356,055,164 7.3% 30,424,157 47,613,010 95,163,914 $19.36
2007 4,831,698,194 323,880,737 337,691,106 7.0% 112,547,122 136,514,845 115,924,341 $20.87
2006 4,695,183,349 300,270,596 313,723,383 6.7% 59,871,127 130,879,842 125,737,666 $20.01
Third Quarter 2011 Statistical Recap
As of the close of the third quarter of 2011, national retail shopping
center vacancy stood at 9.3%, down slightly from the 9.4% mark
where it had held steady since the fourth quarter of 2010. The
market absorbed over 5.8 million square feet of space during
the third quarter—its best performance year-to-date, but well
below pre-recession quarterly averages which typically ranged
in the 15 to 20 million square foot mark. For example, at the
peak of the last real estate cycle in 2007, the market absorbed an
average of 28 million square feet of space per quarter.
So far this year the market has recorded total occupancy growth
in excess of 12.5 million square feet, or an average of nearly 4.2
million square feet. By comparison, last year the market netted
total positive absorption in excess of 27.5 million square feet,
or an average of nearly 6.9 million square feet per quarter. But
while occupancy growth numbers are down, retailer demand
and leasing activity are actually up. In fact, demand has been
up substantially over last year. So why are the numbers down?
Retailer bankruptcies continue to mitigate growth in the
marketplace. The Borders bankruptcy and liquidation alone
translated into nearly 12 million square feet of space being
returned to the marketplace. Blockbuster, meanwhile, has
closed over 1,000 locations this year. Between just these two
retailers over 17 million square feet of occupancy loss was
recorded this year. Take these out of the mix and the market
would be approaching 30 million square feet of growth on the
year already. But the loss of just these two retailers was enough
to counter improving growth trends over the first half of the year
and keep vacancy levels flat. It wasn’t until this quarter that
market vacancy levels finally began to show signs of traction.
The good news is that the positive vacancy trends that we saw
during the third quarter should continue over the final three
months of the year. In fact, barring any unforeseen large-scale
retailer bankruptcies following the holiday shopping season, this
trend should continue at least into the first quarter of 2012. The
problem is that we cannot discount the possibility of some more
large-scale retailer bankruptcies. The fact is that retailer closures
continue. While we don’t expect anything at the level of Borders
or Blockbuster in the months ahead, there will be additional
bankruptcies and there will be more chains in contraction mode
returning space to the market. In fact, Christopher & Banks
recently announced plans to close 100 stores (nearly half a
million square feet) during the first quarter of 2012. The Gap,
meanwhile, has plans to close 189 U.S. stores—roughly 21% of
its domestic store count—over the next couple of years.
While positive occupancy growth from expanding retailers has
largely been cancelled out by space being returned from a few
large bankruptcies, there is one other factor that has significantly
helped to keep vacancy levels from increasing. New development
remains at record lows. So far this year only 11.7 million square
feet of new shopping center product has been delivered to the
marketplace. We are currently on place to close 2011 with
roughly 13 million square feet of new deliveries nationally. Keep
in mind that at the peak of the last real estate cycle (2004 to
2007) deliveries averaged over ten times this total, or 135 million
square feet per year. We are tracking just under 12 million square
feet of shopping center space currently under construction
throughout the United States, the lowest amount that we have
ever tracked. That being said, we are likely at the low-water mark
for retail development. The number of proposed retail projects
in the development pipeline has increased considerably over the
course of the past year and many of these will begin to move dirt
in 2012. However, new construction levels will remain modest
and projects will be dominated by the expansion/renovation of
existing centers as well as urban redevelopment and mixeduse
projects. New suburban shopping center construction
will be scarce.
Specialty Center Update
Specialty retail center vacancy now stands at 7.2%. This category
of shopping centers includes lifestyle centers, as well as theme
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
Specialty Centers
Date
Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under Const
SF
Quoted
Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % Rates
2011 3q 87,764,617 6,412,525 6,469,262 7.4% 147,970 0 863,334 $14.39
2011 2q 87,764,617 6,562,495 6,617,232 7.5% 606,974 7,780 212,889 $14.84
2011 1q 87,756,837 7,162,106 7,216,426 8.2% 123,388 142,065 220,669 $14.98
2010 4q 87,614,772 6,998,929 7,197,749 8.2% 186,970 648,990 156,840 $14.68
2010 3q 86,965,782 6,523,359 6,735,729 7.7% 55,064 9,459 791,055 $17.17
2010 2q 86,956,323 6,565,344 6,781,334 7.8% 191,440 54,874 800,514 $17.15
2010 1q 86,901,449 6,701,910 6,917,900 8.0% (257,772) 148,360 855,388 $17.22
2009 4q 86,753,089 6,406,020 6,511,768 7.5% (213,188) 84,285 533,234 $17.71
2009 3q 86,668,804 6,112,951 6,214,295 7.2% 1,556 8,400 617,519 $18.67
2009 2q 86,660,404 6,048,762 6,207,451 7.2% (133,483) 140,274 98,764 $17.93
2009 1q 86,520,130 5,761,382 5,933,694 6.9% (298,452) 148,411 229,753 $17.55
2008 4q 86,371,719 5,338,266 5,486,831 6.4% 1,264,252 1,492,285 369,764 $17.86
2008 3q 84,879,434 5,167,803 5,258,798 6.2% 209,989 157,105 1,862,049 $17.46
2008 2q 84,722,329 5,210,941 5,311,682 6.3% 671,447 917,490 1,968,711 $17.57
2008 1q 83,804,839 4,983,784 5,065,639 6.0% (256,151) 430,158 2,074,423 $17.79
2007 80,933,086 4,000,106 4,114,779 5.1% 3,768,129 4,292,567 2,027,336 $23.74
2006 76,640,519 3,540,868 3,590,341 4.7% 2,160,781 3,470,922 4,368,537 $19.58
and entertainment centers, and outlet centers. Thanks in large
part to the performance of outlet centers; it is one of the stronger
segments of the retail market. That being said, lifestyle centers
are also performing well and are making a bit of a comeback
after having been overdeveloped at the peak of the last real
estate cycle. This quarter marks the second consecutive quarter
in which vacancy levels have declined. Last quarter vacancy
stood at 7.5%. Vacancy had peaked during the first quarter of
this year at 8.2%.
Specialty centers absorbed nearly 148,000 square feet of space
during the third quarter. Year-to-date absorption now stands
at 878,000 square feet. These are modest totals compared to
pre-recession averages. The market recorded nearly 3.8 million
square feet of occupancy growth in 2007 at the peak of the
last cycle.
Like every other shopping center type, performance has been
bifurcated by class. Class A centers in every market, even
those with the highest overall vacancy levels, have performed
strongly this year and are typically averaging vacancy levels
of 5% or less. Class B centers have performed well in all but
the weakest markets and are typically averaging vacancy levels
in core markets of 10% or less. Class C centers continue to
struggle everywhere. Specialty centers overall have performed
well because the national inventory of specialty centers
overwhelmingly consists of Class A and B product.
Community, Neighborhood & Strip Update
Vacancy levels for community, neighborhood and strip centers
fell from 11.0% to 10.9% during the third quarter. This is the
largest segment of the shopping center market that we track,
accounting for over 3.3 billion square feet of the over five billion
square feet of space that we track. This is also where we see
the greatest variances in terms of individual shopping center
performance. Bifurcation by class is the overriding trend in the
marketplace. Strip centers almost universally fall into the Class
C category and continue to struggle because their bread-andbutter
tenant base, mom-and-pop retailers, remain missing in
action. Mom-and-pop retailers will not be back in any significant
numbers until the nation’s housing market begins to recover—
home equity loans are usually the initial line of funding for
startups and family-owned businesses. That being said, Class
A neighborhood and community centers are doing well in nearly
every major U.S. market. Though the bankruptcy of Blockbuster
largely impacted drug and grocery-store anchored shopping
centers, much of this space was situated in Class A and B
centers and has been generating significant touring and leasing
activity. Neighborhood and community centers, meanwhile,
were largely spared the impact of Borders’ liquidation. Borders
typically utilized space at power/regional centers.
Community, neighborhood and strip centers accounted for
over 5.1 million square feet of occupancy growth during the
third quarter. Year-to-date net absorption now stands above 7.9
million square feet. These numbers should improve over the
final quarter of 2011. Leasing activity continues to be driven by
strong activity from fast casual dining concepts; meanwhile, most
of the pending closures that we are aware of will inordinately
impact malls and power/regional centers. That being said, the
improvement will continue to be limited to the strongest centers.
Power Centers Update
Vacancy for power/regional centers crept up slightly during the
third quarter from 6.9% to 7.0%. Though deliveries accounted
for only 1.2 million square feet of space this quarter, this
number outpaced occupancy growth. Roughly 369,000
square feet of space was absorbed this quarter. This product
type took the biggest hit with Border’s liquidation. We
estimate that over nine million square feet of the 12 million
that Borders returned to the marketplace was at power/
regional centers. Despite this, this product type has continued
to record modest occupancy growth this year. Year-todate
net absorption now stands at just under two million
square feet.
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
Shopping Centers (includes Community, Neighborhood & Strip)
Date
Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Net
Absorption
Deliveries
Under Const
SF
Quoted
Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % Rates
2011 3q 3,363,644,082 354,756,692 366,000,610 10.9% 5,120,213 1,823,512 5,013,856 $14.85
2011 2q 3,361,820,570 356,915,294 369,297,311 11.0% 1,469,071 1,846,848 5,845,647 $14.90
2011 1q 3,359,973,722 356,423,914 368,919,534 11.0% 1,412,628 3,314,709 5,822,283 $15.00
2010 4q 3,356,659,013 355,024,488 367,017,453 10.9% 6,027,130 3,246,433 7,380,312 $15.14
2010 3q 3,353,412,580 357,047,928 369,798,150 11.0% 4,131,556 1,952,330 9,384,297 $15.29
2010 2q 3,351,460,250 358,351,261 371,977,376 11.1% 3,657,120 2,468,001 9,398,868 $15.46
2010 1q 3,348,992,249 358,647,936 373,166,495 11.1% (1,311,327) 3,114,267 8,676,141 $15.64
2009 4q 3,345,877,982 353,406,020 368,740,901 11.0% 961,778 5,341,234 8,408,358 $15.93
2009 3q 3,340,817,952 349,267,530 364,366,145 10.9% (3,992,052) 6,678,180 11,719,805 $16.32
2009 2q 3,334,139,772 338,025,242 353,695,913 10.6% (7,166,269) 8,290,753 15,870,038 $16.46
2009 1q 3,325,849,019 321,758,610 338,238,891 10.2% (8,533,004) 11,989,733 20,232,749 $16.77
2008 4q 3,313,859,286 304,189,591 317,716,154 9.6% 2,591,187 15,799,957 26,985,023 $16.90
2008 3q 3,298,059,329 293,273,864 304,507,384 9.2% 8,129,957 15,340,200 36,838,021 $16.94
2008 2q 3,282,719,129 285,416,884 297,297,141 9.1% 3,195,660 12,712,514 42,431,561 $16.85
2008 1q 3,270,006,615 276,081,185 287,780,287 8.8% 14,784,959 26,718,629 43,532,881 $16.76
2007 3,260,690,895 265,173,809 277,102,762 8.5% 53,679,374 76,775,499 57,581,800 $16.62
2006 3,183,915,396 242,552,616 254,006,637 8.0% 28,601,389 79,841,937 65,730,770 $15.84
Power/regional centers are continuing to show strong leasing
activity for junior box space, however, also are seeing challenges
from continued closures. We expect continued slow growth
ahead. Though we expect vacancy to continue to trend
downward, these decreases will be measured in basis—not
percentage—points.
Mall Update
Mall vacancy currently stands at 5.8%, up slightly from the 5.7%
mark recorded at the mid-year mark. Vacancy had stayed firm
at 5.7% since the fourth quarter of last year. Despite the fact
that vacancy crept upward during the third quarter, occupancy
growth remained modestly positive. The market netted nearly
214,000 square feet of occupancy growth over the past three
months. The problem is that during this same time, the market
also experienced roughly 901,000 square feet of deliveries.
Supply (new construction) outpaced demand (occupancy
growth) and so vacancy levels crept up slightly. This is despite
the fact that both new construction and occupancy growth totals
were miniscule compared to historical averages.
Though malls have been one of the strongest performing
segments of the market in terms of retailer demand and leasing
activity, they are also the segment of the market that we expect
to be most impacted by the next round of retail closures. For
example, both the planned closure of 100 Christopher & Banks
and 189 Gap stores will almost exclusively impact malls. While
luxury and discount retailers are doing well, mid-price retailers are
facing the greatest challenges. The middle-class consumer they
used to cater to has largely downscaled. Meanwhile, a number
of the retailers on our watch list are primarily mall users. While
we expect a strong holiday sales season, there will be more retail
failures in 2012. And many of these will include concepts that are
mall-based. Looking forward, we expect vacancy levels to stay
at or near current levels, but any movement will be up. The good
news for mall landlords is that they remain at the top of the list for
most expanding concepts.
Geographic Updates
Of the five markets that we track in the Northeast United States,
only one—Boston—recorded declining vacancy levels. Vacancy
for Philadelphia remained flat, while New York, Northern New
Jersey and Pittsburgh saw slight increases. Despite this, retail
demand in all of these markets remains high. Urban retail demand
remains particularly high in Boston, New York, Philadelphia
and Pittsburgh.
Within the South Atlantic region, eight of the 12 markets that we
track—Charlotte, Hampton Roads, Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando,
Richmond, Tampa and Washington DC—recorded declining
vacancy levels. Demand and leasing activity remain strong in
the greater Washington DC/Virginia/Maryland markets despite
the fact that Baltimore was one of the markets where we saw
vacancy tick up during the third quarter. Activity also appears
to be on the rise for most of Florida’s retail markets. Atlanta,
Baltimore, Charleston and Raleigh all recorded increased
vacancy in the third quarter, but in most cases these increases
were nominal.
We track five markets in the East South Central region. Three of
these markets—Birmingham, Mobile and Nashville—registered
vacancy declines. Only Louisville saw an increase in vacancy,
while occupancy remained flat in Memphis.
We track eight markets in the West South Central region. Five
markets—Austin, Houston, Little Rock, New Orleans and Tulsa—
recorded vacancy declines this quarter. Houston led the way
with over 860,000 square feet of occupancy growth. Occupancy
levels remained flat in the Oklahoma City metro. Both the Dallas
and San Antonio metros recorded modest increases in vacancy.
We track six markets in the East North Central region. All but
two recorded decreased vacancy in the third quarter. Chicago,
Cleveland, Indianapolis and Milwaukee all saw vacancy levels
creep downward. Chicago leads all other markets in terms of
occupancy growth with over 1.2 million square feet. Cincinnati
and Detroit both saw vacancy levels creep up slightly.
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
Power Center
Date
Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Net
Absorption
Deliveries
Under Const
SF
Quoted
Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % Rates
2011 3q 607,588,728 40,219,833 42,676,733 7.0% 368,995 1,230,066 1,749,358 $17.20
2011 2q 606,358,662 39,268,341 41,815,662 6.9% 466,026 99,069 2,396,424 $17.44
2011 1q 606,259,593 39,745,698 42,182,619 7.0% 1,150,718 1,026,894 2,081,001 $18.12
2010 4q 605,232,699 39,802,055 42,306,443 7.0% 1,974,877 527,144 2,666,505 $17.70
2010 3q 604,705,555 40,909,227 43,754,176 7.2% 2,781,764 764,333 2,055,893 $17.74
2010 2q 603,941,222 42,682,726 45,771,607 7.6% 2,458,371 945,159 2,200,177 $17.85
2010 1q 602,996,063 43,800,226 47,284,819 7.8% 1,505,714 929,830 2,771,823 $18.61
2009 4q 602,066,233 43,970,755 47,860,703 7.9% 1,802,969 2,534,658 2,981,972 $18.81
2009 3q 599,531,575 43,108,787 47,129,014 7.9% 3,125,217 3,588,005 4,989,995 $19.33
2009 2q 595,943,570 42,178,628 46,666,226 7.8% (276,669) 2,127,700 7,523,400 $19.41
2009 1q 593,815,870 38,808,866 44,261,857 7.5% (1,612,958) 5,441,879 8,748,090 $19.66
2008 4q 588,373,991 32,742,146 37,207,020 6.3% 2,294,937 7,955,799 12,534,470 $20.36
2008 3q 580,418,192 30,220,658 31,546,158 5.4% 6,904,281 7,538,670 17,751,789 $20.47
2008 2q 572,879,522 29,528,204 30,911,769 5.4% 3,528,834 4,863,233 22,875,947 $20.44
2008 1q 568,016,289 28,257,703 29,577,370 5.2% 9,389,509 11,583,802 23,824,569 $20.28
2007 560,836,359 25,743,435 26,625,776 4.7% 28,110,915 27,482,450 28,090,981 $20.10
2006 533,353,909 26,143,520 27,254,241 5.1% 17,760,484 24,853,935 27,424,184 $19.38
In the West North Central region we track five markets. St.
Louis and Kansas City both saw vacancy retreat during the third
quarter. Omaha’s occupancy levels remained flat this quarter.
Both the Des Moines and Minneapolis markets saw vacancy
levels creep up by a basis point.
We track seven markets in the Mountain region. Performance here
was evenly mixed; three markets improved, three markets declined
and one remained flat. Vacancy decreased in the Denver, Reno
and Salt Lake City markets. Denver led the way for occupancy
growth and has recorded over 1.2 million square feet of absorption
so far this year. Las Vegas remained flat at 13.4% vacancy. The
Albuquerque, Phoenix and Tucson markets all saw increased
vacancy levels.
We track 12 markets in the Pacific region. Seven of these markets
recorded increased vacancy levels this quarter. Vacancy improved
in the Inland Empire, Oakland/East Bay, San Diego, San Jose/
South Bay and Seattle markets. Vacancy increased in Hawaii, Los
Angeles, Orange County, Portland, Sacramento, San Francisco
and Santa Barbara
Malls
Date
Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Net
Absorption
Deliveries
Under Const
SF
Quoted
Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % Rates
2011 3q 1,010,204,462 56,115,625 58,189,133 5.8% 213,883 900,609 4,269,353 $19.01
2011 2q 1,009,303,853 54,871,501 57,502,407 5.7% 790,818 1,196,541 5,077,423 $19.48
2011 1q 1,008,107,312 54,701,754 57,096,684 5.7% 712,694 219,266 5,077,956 $19.93
2010 4q 1,007,888,046 55,164,011 57,590,112 5.7% 2,628,614 349,880 4,956,562 $19.77
2010 3q 1,007,538,166 57,532,913 59,868,846 5.9% 1,371,644 684,039 4,871,683 $19.87
2010 2q 1,006,854,127 57,959,196 60,556,451 6.0% 1,420,826 2,148,147 5,164,191 $20.16
2010 1q 1,004,705,980 57,147,183 59,829,130 6.0% 782,540 1,442,774 7,082,328 $20.29
2009 4q 1,003,263,206 56,290,632 59,168,896 5.9% 2,615,898 3,466,354 7,936,984 $20.77
2009 3q 999,796,852 55,404,329 58,318,440 5.8% 2,345,781 5,405,500 10,072,545 $20.84
2009 2q 994,391,352 52,442,713 55,258,721 5.6% (888,096) 1,496,559 14,693,345 $21.68
2009 1q 992,894,793 48,690,544 52,874,066 5.3% (4,930,654) 3,807,430 14,935,158 $23.83
2008 4q 989,087,363 41,524,972 44,135,982 4.5% 1,221,329 7,042,056 16,433,793 $23.51
2008 3q 982,045,307 37,062,163 38,315,255 3.9% 4,503,254 5,600,116 20,998,985 $23.09
2008 2q 976,445,191 36,156,812 37,218,393 3.8% 1,722,065 5,308,590 24,901,098 $22.88
2008 1q 971,136,601 32,479,485 33,631,868 3.5% 6,505,840 8,880,421 25,732,041 $22.64
2007 929,237,854 28,963,387 29,847,789 3.2% 26,988,704 27,964,329 28,224,224 $23.02
2006 901,273,525 28,033,592 28,872,164 3.2% 11,348,473 22,713,048 28,214,175 $25.21
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
Northeast
Boston MA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 6 1,619,941 15,794 15,794 1.0% 0.5% 4.6% 2,389 0 0 $21.40
Shopping Centers 1,619 85,582,567 5,770,826 6,054,988 7.1% 7.0% 7.6% 444,862 263,145 50,900 $15.30
Power Centers 37 15,741,807 685,522 689,122 4.4% 4.9% 4.4% 733,395 600,000 240,000 $11.62
Malls 36 27,359,618 966,399 971,665 3.6% 3.4% 2.9% (180,467) 0 0 $26.94
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,698 130,303,933 7,438,541 7,731,569 5.9% 6.0% 6.2% 1,000,179 863,145 290,900
Northeast U.S. – New England
New York City
NY
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 2 331,000 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 N/A
Shopping Centers 7 949,808 33,443 33,443 3.5% 0.9% 0.7% (21,446) 0 0 N/A
Power Centers 2 833,680 16,135 16,135 1.9% 1.9% 0.8% 4,196 0 0 N/A
Malls 1 493,000 36,866 36,866 7.5% 6.9% 0.0% (2,674) 0 0 N/A
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
12 2,607,488 86,444 86,444 3.3% 2.3% 1.9% (19,924) 0 0
Northern
New Jersey
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 13 3,070,018 123,301 123,301 4.0% 4.3% 2.6% (14,929) 0 0 $23.78
Shopping Centers 1,792 90,773,327 8,651,593 8,860,454 9.8% 9.4% 8.5% (590,243) 266,593 222,000 $20.02
Power Centers 58 20,997,279 1,380,076 1,510,331 7.2% 6.0% 5.4% 57,251 339,689 0 $22.00
Malls 44 40,033,427 926,001 937,747 2.3% 2.4% 2.1% 52,254 0 0 $32.64
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,907 154,874,051 11,080,971 11,431,833 7.4% 7.1% 6.7% (495,667) 606,282 222,000
Philadelphia
PA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 21 4,379,557 183,657 183,657 4.2% 1.9% 2.6% (9,340) 0 0 $13.04
Shopping Centers 2,274 148,028,235 14,030,171 14,522,660 9.8% 9.8% 10.1% 128,552 712,935 366,544 $14.45
Power Centers 85 36,476,257 2,042,862 2,045,862 5.6% 5.3% 6.5% 506,055 250,970 74,492 $15.02
Malls 64 51,657,997 1,766,879 2,178,078 4.2% 4.7% 5.1% 71,535 134,583 1,370,861 $22.44
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
2,444 240,542,046 18,023,569 18,930,257 7.9% 7.9% 8.0% 696,802 1,098,488 1,811,897
Pittsburgh PA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 1 190,230 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0 0 0 N/A
Shopping Centers 531 31,940,767 2,067,611 2,171,659 6.8% 7.0% 8.0% 398,755 6,800 150,000 $11.29
Power Centers 29 11,889,383 697,514 697,514 5.9% 5.5% 5.9% (17,914) 0 0 $15.46
Malls 21 18,513,563 1,233,214 1,265,158 6.8% 6.5% 6.5% (27,488) 124,829 8,500 $15.80
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
582 62,533,943 3,998,339 4,134,331 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 353,353 131,629 158,500
Northeast U.S. – Middle Atlantic
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
Atlanta GA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 17 2,537,204 364,126 364,126 14.4% 9.8% 4.3% 120,908 0 0 $11.59
Shopping Centers 3,110 139,458,781 20,424,458 21,025,608 15.1% 14.8% 15.0% (287,836) 11,400 447,075 $13.21
Power Centers 65 27,287,943 2,627,737 2,683,938 9.8% 8.5% 8.7% (534,957) 0 0 $14.58
Malls 41 35,838,707 2,049,837 2,066,067 5.8% 6.2% 6.0% (172,594) 0 0 $20.46
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
3,233 205,122,635 25,466,158 26,139,739 12.7% 12.6% 12.5% (874,479) 11,400 447,075
South U.S. – South Atlantic
Baltimore MD
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 2 261,838 3,030 3,030 1.2% 0.0% 8.3% 0 0 0 N/A
Shopping Centers 796 45,662,037 3,594,639 3,753,847 8.2% 7.6% 8.6% (155,625) 36,459 13,610 $18.55
Power Centers 22 9,015,188 480,820 541,010 6.0% 6.7% 7.5% 13,117 63,000 0 $19.03
Malls 24 18,743,645 1,642,604 1,647,129 8.8% 7.5% 7.7% 72,391 19,419 589,000 $26.22
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
844 73,682,708 5,721,093 5,945,016 8.1% 7.4% 8.1% (70,117) 118,878 602,610
Charleston SC
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 2 576,075 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 $23.70
Shopping Centers 284 13,220,211 1,356,787 1,396,776 10.6% 9.9% 10.8% 146,608 46,560 5,400 $13.79
Power Centers 4 1,376,537 150,389 150,389 10.9% 6.3% 5.6% (32,733) 0 0 $13.68
Malls 3 2,499,265 27,765 29,034 1.2% 1.5% 6.7% 51,490 0 0 $20.57
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
293 17,672,088 1,534,941 1,576,199 8.9% 8.1% 8.1% 165,365 46,560 5,400
Charlotte NC
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 3 1,257,180 82,123 84,123 6.7% 8.1% 3.9% 5,581 0 0 $22.46
Shopping Centers 1,081 50,884,651 5,707,741 5,857,784 11.5% 11.8% 12.1% 256,864 73,652 79,102 $12.95
Power Centers 20 8,327,101 289,042 317,602 3.8% 5.2% 5.6% 40,748 0 0 $20.93
Malls 32 19,572,713 1,878,041 1,898,985 9.7% 9.0% 11.7% 81,033 0 0 $18.29
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,136 80,041,645 7,956,947 8,158,494 10.2% 10.5% 11.2% 384,226 73,652 79,102
Hampton
Roads VA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 4 1,101,386 80,034 80,034 7.3% 7.3% 1.2% 0 0 0 $33.48
Shopping Centers 856 41,248,269 4,352,106 4,362,665 10.6% 10.7% 10.8% 202,937 126,909 119,000 $12.91
Power Centers 16 5,946,923 179,967 179,967 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% (12,826) 12,192 0 $17.51
Malls 14 10,861,822 400,618 401,428 3.7% 3.8% 5.1% 27,486 0 0 $18.96
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
890 59,158,400 5,012,725 5,024,094 8.5% 8.6% 8.8% 217,597 139,101 119,000
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
South U.S. – South Atlantic cont.
Jacksonville
FL
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 3 647,973 5,585 5,585 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 1,050 0 0 $15.50
Shopping Centers 750 36,274,102 4,456,841 4,507,719 12.4% 12.4% 13.5% 262,132 61,752 5,000 $13.44
Power Centers 6 2,364,897 460,545 460,545 19.5% 19.2% 16.7% (45,245) 0 0 $11.42
Malls 10 7,574,259 335,383 378,943 5.0% 5.6% 5.2% (20,590) 0 0 $16.64
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
769 46,861,231 5,258,354 5,352,792 11.4% 11.5% 11.7% 197,347 61,752 5,000
Miami FL
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 7 943,056 87,631 87,631 9.3% 9.5% 10.6% 2,638 0 0 $30.97
Shopping Centers 1,328 44,880,994 2,640,721 2,666,451 5.9% 6.2% 6.6% 302,339 55,561 58,780 $22.46
Power Centers 8 3,118,113 47,707 47,707 1.5% 2.4% 4.8% 55,354 0 0 $39.71
Malls 19 16,162,636 528,066 538,635 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% (6,473) 0 0 $30.43
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,362 65,104,799 3,304,125 3,340,424 5.1% 5.3% 5.8% 353,858 55,561 58,780
Orlando FL
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 18 5,302,625 359,876 359,876 6.8% 6.3% 6.3% 23,513 0 0 $18.50
Shopping Centers 1,309 62,234,506 7,175,373 7,230,852 11.6% 12.0% 11.7% 105,985 99,583 52,703 $15.20
Power Centers 23 9,507,915 721,885 733,681 7.7% 7.8% 8.7% 162,313 27,255 0 $16.31
Malls 25 17,801,082 867,368 867,368 4.9% 4.5% 4.3% 22,312 4,034 0 $23.01
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,375 94,846,128 9,124,502 9,191,777 9.7% 9.9% 9.9% 314,123 130,872 52,703
Raleigh NC
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 6 1,211,123 35,000 35,000 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 0 0 0 $18.00
Shopping Centers 525 37,456,505 3,474,421 3,510,728 9.4% 8.8% 9.2% 462,798 451,360 40,800 $15.56
Power Centers 21 8,324,800 517,461 547,643 6.6% 6.4% 5.7% 89,980 15,600 706,300 $15.64
Malls 15 10,474,532 278,244 278,244 2.7% 3.1% 3.2% 41,245 0 0 $22.44
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
567 57,466,960 4,305,126 4,371,615 7.6% 7.3% 7.5% 594,023 466,960 747,100
Richmond VA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 1 54,528 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0 0 0 $25.00
Shopping Centers 549 29,306,736 3,186,965 3,229,161 11.0% 10.9% 11.8% 153,700 97,372 38,222 $13.75
Power Centers 9 3,184,551 84,465 94,465 3.0% 1.5% 3.7% 45,728 1,430 0 $14.55
Malls 13 9,221,366 303,614 306,693 3.3% 4.3% 7.1% 97,520 9,302 175,365 $20.08
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
572 41,767,181 3,575,044 3,630,319 8.7% 8.8% 9.3% 296,948 108,104 213,587
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
South U.S. – South Atlantic cont.
Tampa FL
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 4 684,769 102,613 102,613 15.0% 7.9% 8.2% (8,875) 0 0 $14.40
Shopping Centers 2,017 86,780,375 9,229,966 9,576,899 11.0% 11.1% 11.2% 263,161 139,181 50,932 $13.33
Power Centers 28 9,759,152 645,669 645,669 6.6% 7.4% 7.7% 19,461 0 0 $17.23
Malls 21 16,910,133 654,906 663,298 3.9% 4.1% 4.0% 32,373 0 0 $24.22
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
2,070 114,134,429 10,633,154 10,988,479 9.6% 9.7% 9.4% 306,120 139,181 50,932
Washington
DC
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 10 1,523,520 37,659 38,919 2.6% 1.4% 2.2% (15,525) 0 0 N/A
Shopping Centers 1,262 82,172,293 5,795,863 6,081,017 7.4% 7.4% 7.8% 208,077 259,308 68,373 $22.36
Power Centers 33 16,101,461 465,581 479,760 3.0% 3.8% 3.5% (57,170) 0 40,670 $24.65
Malls 53 41,672,269 1,113,909 1,157,124 2.8% 2.6% 4.0% 645,902 750,553 0 $26.05
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,358 141,469,543 7,413,012 7,756,820 5.5% 5.6% 6.2% 781,284 1,009,861 109,043
Birmingham
AL
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 6 1,740,801 390,956 395,394 22.7% 23.3% 15.9% 20,874 0 0 $13.11
Shopping Centers 574 26,595,014 3,726,545 3,811,225 14.3% 14.0% 13.4% 14,511 75,500 0 $9.21
Power Centers 14 5,998,835 213,032 294,889 4.9% 6.0% 6.2% 109,063 0 35,000 $15.77
Malls 12 6,950,615 1,273,800 1,292,600 18.6% 20.6% 17.6% 2,291 0 0 $16.55
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
606 41,285,265 5,604,333 5,794,108 14.0% 14.2% 13.8% 146,739 75,500 35,000
Louisville KY
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 3 1,245,871 299,307 299,307 24.0% 22.5% 30.5% (16,112) 0 0 $7.75
Shopping Centers 503 27,956,364 3,191,686 3,274,550 11.7% 11.5% 11.8% 301,509 28,905 10,400 $10.95
Power Centers 5 2,438,016 124,877 153,366 6.3% 6.8% 10.4% 30,093 0 0 $19.55
Malls 6 6,590,433 79,282 157,782 2.4% 2.4% 3.1% 13,573 0 0 $7.21
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
517 38,230,684 3,695,152 3,885,005 10.2% 10.0% 10.5% 329,063 28,905 10,400
South U.S. – East South Central
Memphis TN
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 6 1,179,936 314,776 314,776 26.7% 26.6% 24.2% (6,548) 0 0 $12.53
Shopping Centers 779 30,634,050 3,817,890 3,904,293 12.7% 12.8% 12.7% 33,349 313 8,786 $10.78
Power Centers 16 6,741,909 762,891 849,294 12.6% 12.3% 15.3% 159,284 183,164 0 $8.95
Malls 7 5,803,400 784,889 818,776 14.1% 14.4% 8.8% (44,646) 0 0 $3.69
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
808 44,359,295 5,680,446 5,887,139 13.3% 13.3% 13.5% 141,439 183,477 8,786
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
South U.S. – East South Central cont.
Mobile AL
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 2 559,860 1,600 1,600 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0 0 0 $24.00
Shopping Centers 239 9,237,008 966,605 1,054,011 11.4% 11.9% 12.1% 114,845 21,548 0 $12.07
Power Centers 3 1,474,274 48,930 48,930 3.3% 9.3% 10.9% 8,651 0 0 $18.22
Malls 5 3,805,666 301,795 349,029 9.2% 9.8% 10.4% 84,225 0 0 $22.85
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
249 15,076,808 1,318,930 1,453,570 9.6% 10.7% 11.1% 207,721 21,548 0
Nashville TN
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 6 827,996 82,400 82,400 10.0% 10.5% 9.9% 1,898 0 0 $5.14
Shopping Centers 648 30,140,620 3,075,987 3,208,200 10.6% 10.8% 10.9% 106,083 5,724 0 $13.67
Power Centers 16 6,218,548 293,080 295,947 4.8% 4.8% 3.2% (75,109) 0 0 $18.42
Malls 13 10,880,415 914,059 914,059 8.4% 8.6% 11.5% 208,390 149,000 0 $24.44
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
683 48,067,579 4,365,526 4,500,606 9.4% 9.5% 9.7% 241,262 154,724 0
Austin TX
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 5 1,500,509 105,643 105,643 7.0% 6.9% 8.0% 13,660 0 72,889 $24.78
Shopping Centers 562 26,392,190 2,825,723 2,883,403 10.9% 11.4% 10.7% (41,073) 30,468 66,050 $17.88
Power Centers 21 10,103,709 372,284 406,775 4.0% 4.5% 5.4% (4,171) 5,700 0 $18.50
Malls 11 7,867,328 158,597 164,797 2.1% 1.9% 3.5% 75,520 0 0 $20.20
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
599 45,863,736 3,462,247 3,560,618 7.8% 8.3% 7.9% 43,936 36,168 138,939
South U.S. – West South Central
Houston TX
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 12 1,712,037 112,308 112,308 6.6% 10.9% 11.1% (16,077) 0 0 $7.49
Shopping Centers 3,509 149,570,140 14,275,970 14,584,793 9.8% 10.1% 10.9% 749,016 445,941 194,238 $14.16
Power Centers 46 18,677,841 1,044,351 1,138,683 6.1% 5.7% 5.6% 67,710 9,600 16,912 $15.79
Malls 45 35,990,638 2,642,780 2,721,319 7.6% 6.8% 7.0% 59,852 0 0 $22.80
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
3,612 205,950,656 18,075,409 18,557,103 9.0% 9.1% 9.4% 860,501 455,541 211,150
Dallas TX
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 19 2,521,029 189,695 189,695 7.5% 1.1% 5.6% 35,149 0 90,000 $12.13
Shopping Centers 3,424 149,109,638 20,735,593 21,264,425 14.3% 13.9% 13.3% 164,424 282,254 493,918 $13.13
Power Centers 69 26,517,330 2,236,237 2,298,580 8.7% 7.0% 7.7% 228,696 581,451 138,452 $18.17
Malls 43 38,107,100 2,305,351 2,309,911 6.1% 6.9% 7.1% 114,485 103,714 3,530 $21.98
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
3,555 216,255,097 25,466,876 26,062,611 12.1% 11.8% 11.2% 542,754 967,419 725,900
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
South U.S. – West South Central cont.
Little Rock AR
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 N/A
Shopping Centers 428 14,952,262 1,223,510 1,225,510 8.2% 8.6% 8.3% 8,675 0 0 $9.65
Power Centers 6 2,782,688 194,658 194,658 7.0% 7.5% 12.3% 261,096 180,000 0 $14.70
Malls 8 2,841,392 86,011 86,011 3.0% 2.3% 2.4% (6,050) 0 0 $8.44
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
442 20,576,342 1,504,179 1,506,179 7.3% 7.6% 7.4% 263,721 180,000 0
New Orleans
LA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 3 377,761 75,074 80,074 21.2% 15.7% 15.5% (20,611) 0 0 $20.00
Shopping Centers 360 17,911,987 1,875,490 1,908,594 10.7% 11.3% 11.0% 16,383 21,219 9,315 $13.02
Power Centers 3 1,469,160 40,498 40,498 2.8% 5.0% 4.6% 29,890 0 0 $22.00
Malls 11 7,872,226 364,329 369,437 4.7% 6.6% 5.9% 96,668 17,542 0 $6.78
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
377 27,631,134 2,355,391 2,398,603 8.7% 9.7% 9.8% 122,330 38,761 9,315
Tulsa OK
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 6 477,068 62,755 62,755 13.2% 18.0% 15.2% (9,127) 0 0 $5.82
Shopping Centers 651 22,780,616 2,427,278 2,473,048 10.9% 10.6% 10.4% 202,844 6,525 0 $9.83
Power Centers 4 2,024,794 143,847 143,847 7.1% 7.0% 6.7% 9,403 0 0 $6.93
Malls 10 6,478,835 253,496 288,696 4.5% 5.0% 6.0% (2,090) 0 0 $11.02
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
671 31,761,313 2,887,376 2,968,346 9.3% 9.4% 9.2% 201,030 6,525 0
Oklahoma City
OK
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 5 889,801 79,579 79,579 8.9% 24.6% 52.8% (10,779) 0 0 $10.89
Shopping Centers 775 26,522,179 2,817,024 2,889,761 10.9% 11.7% 9.7% 112,463 56,320 12,736 $9.53
Power Centers 10 4,083,986 151,841 191,617 4.7% 4.6% 2.4% (57,065) 0 0 $14.45
Malls 10 5,927,671 997,018 1,190,017 20.1% 15.8% 17.8% (12,753) 0 8,000 $16.68
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
800 37,423,637 4,045,462 4,350,974 11.6% 11.6% 11.3% 31,866 56,320 20,736
San Antonio
TX
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 4 150,826 20,378 20,378 13.5% 8.4% 3.5% (10,838) 0 0 $11.00
Shopping Centers 1,205 42,935,067 4,283,505 4,487,647 10.5% 10.6% 10.7% 284,813 282,380 334,248 $14.01
Power Centers 13 6,155,616 761,504 769,438 12.5% 10.8% 8.0% (115,950) 50,056 0 $22.86
Malls 16 14,665,672 554,389 607,425 4.1% 3.5% 3.0% (76,605) 0 0 $15.49
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,238 63,907,181 5,619,776 5,884,888 9.2% 9.0% 8.9% 81,420 332,436 334,248
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
Midwest
Chicago IL
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 13 3,207,366 25,143 25,143 0.8% 1.0% 1.3% 2,419 0 190,445 $15.00
Shopping Centers 3,783 160,784,982 19,285,397 19,415,930 12.1% 12.3% 12.4% 249,609 80,004 5,600 $15.87
Power Centers 75 33,213,523 2,238,379 2,371,374 7.1% 7.2% 10.4% 821,832 0 0 $17.01
Malls 45 41,123,885 1,463,354 1,546,723 3.8% 3.6% 3.0% 155,258 0 0 $23.30
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
3,916 238,329,756 23,012,273 23,359,170 9.8% 10.0% 10.3% 1,229,118 80,004 196,045
Midwest U.S. – East North Central
Cincinnati OH
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 5 768,846 75,062 75,062 9.8% 9.7% 9.9% (11,800) 0 0 N/A
Shopping Centers 763 34,863,005 4,841,771 5,051,736 14.5% 14.0% 13.0% 278,876 214,000 0 $10.83
Power Centers 17 7,030,676 755,219 779,719 11.1% 11.1% 14.2% 164,331 134,500 0 $12.39
Malls 15 11,486,375 1,071,715 1,256,715 10.9% 11.3% 7.5% 55,693 0 0 $11.00
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
800 54,148,902 6,743,767 7,163,232 13.2% 13.0% 12.7% 487,100 348,500 0
Cleveland OH
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 9 3,663,456 74,351 74,351 2.0% 1.7% 4.5% 622,222 0 0 $8.83
Shopping Centers 981 48,073,881 5,805,678 6,457,353 13.4% 13.7% 12.5% (177,235) 20,966 0 $11.14
Power Centers 29 13,233,859 1,163,158 1,163,158 8.8% 8.2% 8.0% (88,406) 18,352 0 $14.66
Malls 18 17,387,824 2,479,153 2,479,943 14.3% 15.9% 18.4% (13,724) 0 30,000 $9.53
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,037 82,359,020 9,522,340 10,174,805 12.4% 12.6% 12.2% 342,857 39,318 30,000
Detroit MI
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 5 1,569,073 77,311 77,311 4.9% 6.8% 7.7% (1,832) 0 0 $15.00
Shopping Centers 1,737 70,297,079 10,632,965 11,001,171 15.6% 15.6% 16.2% 151,408 47,368 42,000 $12.55
Power Centers 45 18,477,431 1,132,255 1,249,794 6.8% 7.1% 6.7% (93,396) 0 0 $13.67
Malls 25 25,327,675 2,002,331 2,027,954 8.0% 5.8% 3.9% (85,127) 0 0 $11.47
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,812 115,671,258 13,844,862 14,356,230 12.4% 12.0% 12.3% (28,947) 47,368 42,000
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
Midwest
Milwaukee WI
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 3 430,906 19,438 19,438 4.5% 7.5% 8.8% 12,900 0 0 $21.41
Shopping Centers 698 33,946,669 3,882,830 4,034,279 11.9% 12.8% 11.3% 116,195 9,140 42,190 $11.78
Power Centers 11 3,957,537 316,098 369,994 9.3% 9.0% 8.8% (3,013) 0 0 $16.77
Malls 12 8,682,997 1,199,444 1,199,444 13.8% 13.6% 13.6% (49,003) 0 0 $8.72
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
724 47,018,109 5,417,810 5,623,155 12.0% 12.5% 12.0% 77,079 9,140 42,190
Midwest U.S. – East North Central cont.
Des Moines IA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 1 188,881 2,000 2,000 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 200 0 0 $12.00
Shopping Centers 233 10,524,063 925,318 937,723 8.9% 9.3% 9.7% 103,103 0 0 $11.72
Power Centers 2 944,503 74,525 74,525 7.9% 5.1% 6.0% (23,566) 0 0 $11.35
Malls 8 5,570,389 308,680 308,680 5.5% 5.2% 5.2% (28,296) 0 0 $15.17
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
244 17,227,836 1,310,523 1,322,928 7.7% 7.6% 7.5% 51,441 0 0
Kansas City
MO
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 5 1,733,809 143,880 153,880 8.9% 7.3% 12.7% 5,020 0 0 $8.36
Shopping Centers 671 39,045,899 5,127,996 5,448,073 14.0% 14.5% 14.8% 157,150 45,000 0 $12.18
Power Centers 21 9,190,917 594,037 594,037 6.5% 6.7% 5.5% 28,192 23,171 33,272 $17.52
Malls 15 12,062,181 593,840 744,218 6.2% 6.6% 7.9% 93,959 14,440 0 $24.27
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
712 62,032,806 6,459,753 6,940,208 11.2% 11.6% 11.9% 284,321 82,611 33,272
Midwest U.S. – West North Central
Indianapolis
IN
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 N/A
Shopping Centers 813 39,450,465 4,596,377 4,774,700 12.1% 12.6% 13.2% (45,841) 9,000 0 $11.87
Power Centers 24 10,295,370 730,209 784,473 7.6% 8.7% 7.7% (100,820) 0 0 $16.04
Malls 16 14,449,006 940,408 949,841 6.6% 6.1% 5.6% (191,810) 0 0 $15.88
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
853 64,194,841 6,266,994 6,509,014 10.1% 10.5% 10.8% (338,471) 9,000 0
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
Midwest
St. Louis MO
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 4 955,002 20,000 20,000 2.1% 2.1% 6.4% 0 0 0 $11.46
Shopping Centers 1,122 54,322,249 5,731,317 5,803,172 10.7% 10.8% 11.1% 85,589 26,225 235,530 $12.61
Power Centers 24 9,391,265 822,578 839,991 8.9% 7.1% 7.0% (243,256) 0 11,500 $13.39
Malls 21 19,647,828 1,732,118 1,732,118 8.8% 10.5% 9.6% (75,754) 0 0 $15.95
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,171 84,316,344 8,306,013 8,395,281 10.0% 10.3% 10.7% (233,421) 26,225 247,030
Midwest U.S. – West North Central cont.
Minneapolis
MN
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 7 1,419,830 38,367 62,930 4.4% 5.1% 5.0% 10,002 0 0 $18.62
Shopping Centers 1,289 53,649,704 5,217,978 5,332,326 9.9% 9.8% 9.7% (119,519) 190,219 10,900 $13.49
Power Centers 27 10,777,637 475,992 488,492 4.5% 4.5% 2.5% (113,655) 0 0 $16.84
Malls 20 18,278,841 568,290 630,763 3.5% 3.0% 5.6% 616,279 0 26,000 $18.69
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,343 84,126,012 6,300,627 6,514,511 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 393,107 190,219 36,900
Omaha NE
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 1 197,863 63,000 63,000 31.8% 31.8% 31.8% 0 0 0 N/A
Shopping Centers 364 16,585,975 2,119,586 2,160,213 13.0% 13.2% 12.6% (37,107) 8,127 0 $10.57
Power Centers 9 3,620,381 321,232 321,232 8.9% 8.3% 7.2% 5,416 26,380 5,328 $13.89
Malls 8 5,332,968 184,212 184,212 3.5% 3.6% 4.6% (1,415) 0 9,816 $7.57
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
382 25,737,187 2,688,030 2,728,657 10.6% 10.6% 10.8% (33,106) 34,507 15,144
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
West
Albuquerque
NM
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 N/A
Shopping Centers 349 17,646,014 2,098,063 2,142,268 12.1% 11.3% 11.3% (42,606) 86,275 69,330 $13.73
Power Centers 6 2,259,500 247,858 265,694 11.8% 12.9% 11.0% 18,980 6,000 0 $14.28
Malls 4 3,393,656 235,501 235,501 6.9% 7.8% 8.4% 6,690 0 0 $28.00
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
359 23,299,170 2,581,422 2,643,463 11.3% 10.8% 10.7% (16,936) 92,275 69,330
West U.S. – Mountain
Denver CO
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 5 1,397,024 16,647 16,647 1.2% 4.3% 6.3% 1,270 0 0 $22.33
Shopping Centers 1,348 69,947,480 6,686,848 6,746,631 9.6% 10.1% 10.3% 1,150,394 468,734 140,411 $13.85
Power Centers 44 18,707,059 1,075,899 1,149,380 6.1% 7.6% 7.5% 62,603 0 31,100 $17.49
Malls 23 21,142,078 1,714,500 1,820,486 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 32,524 270,000 0 $21.35
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,420 111,193,641 9,493,894 9,733,144 8.8% 9.2% 9.5% 1,246,791 738,734 171,511
Las Vegas NV
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 9 2,195,181 135,704 135,704 6.2% 6.3% 5.2% (811) 0 0 $18.31
Shopping Centers 994 50,739,269 7,545,921 8,095,620 16.0% 16.0% 15.3% (396,182) 7,730 28,800 $16.88
Power Centers 24 10,538,083 1,175,453 1,202,053 11.4% 11.0% 7.8% (251,177) 0 0 $18.47
Malls 19 14,122,763 931,489 931,489 6.6% 7.2% 5.0% 40,731 199,528 273,750 $39.63
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,046 77,595,296 9,788,567 10,364,866 13.4% 13.4% 12.8% (607,439) 207,258 302,550
Phoenix AZ
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 14 4,148,769 313,752 323,028 7.8% 9.1% 10.0% (17,034) 0 0 $16.10
Shopping Centers 1,811 103,958,181 16,792,439 17,227,461 16.6% 16.1% 15.4% (638,700) 114,938 68,143 $14.29
Power Centers 47 20,378,390 1,705,506 1,781,969 8.7% 8.1% 9.9% (155,583) 13,739 0 $19.37
Malls 32 25,764,770 2,626,307 2,670,477 10.4% 10.3% 10.7% 220,648 134,785 0 $21.67
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,904 154,250,110 21,438,004 22,002,935 14.3% 13.9% 13.3% (590,669) 263,462 68,143
Reno NV
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 1 56,000 28,000 28,000 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0 0 0 $21.00
Shopping Centers 158 9,849,328 1,241,567 1,330,577 13.5% 15.7% 15.2% 71,818 0 0 $15.73
Power Centers 4 2,004,965 357,220 358,522 17.9% 19.1% 19.4% (27,442) 0 0 $21.63
Malls 5 3,897,638 262,849 269,392 6.9% 4.5% 3.3% (33,130) 0 0 $13.63
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
168 15,807,931 1,889,636 1,986,491 12.6% 13.6% 14.4% 11,246 0 0
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
West
Salt Lake City
UT
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 7 1,701,457 17,649 17,649 1.0% 2.2% 3.1% 22,251 0 10,000 $20.19
Shopping Centers 864 41,057,951 2,888,436 2,922,141 7.1% 7.7% 8.0% 487,175 169,106 13,740 $14.10
Power Centers 12 4,690,529 184,313 184,313 3.9% 3.0% 4.6% (12,058) 0 0 $16.87
Malls 21 13,627,463 1,118,111 1,118,111 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% (7,536) 2,225 124,000 $14.65
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
904 61,077,400 4,208,509 4,242,214 6.9% 7.2% 7.6% 489,832 171,331 147,740
West U.S. – Mountain cont.
Tucson AZ
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 5 504,830 11,639 11,639 2.3% 2.5% 1.1% 3,524 0 0 $5.11
Shopping Centers 518 22,405,340 2,716,073 2,729,163 12.2% 11.9% 10.9% (184,418) 17,617 16,442 $14.57
Power Centers 9 3,063,583 268,641 268,641 8.8% 9.3% 12.5% 28,279 0 0 $22.73
Malls 6 5,018,719 434,441 434,441 8.7% 8.0% 6.9% (49,748) 0 3,280 $25.11
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
538 30,992,472 3,430,794 3,443,884 11.1% 10.9% 10.8% (202,363) 17,617 19,722
Hawaii
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 5 458,746 63,721 71,535 15.6% 14.4% 16.9% 15,434 17,681 0 N/A
Shopping Centers 246 17,159,205 676,793 679,375 4.0% 3.9% 4.2% (8,828) 0 0 $31.69
Power Centers 4 1,870,423 45,997 45,997 2.5% 0.1% 5.3% (44,897) 0 0 $42.61
Malls 10 8,082,542 193,319 255,412 3.2% 2.2% 1.9% (101,356) 0 0 $40.44
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
265 27,570,916 979,830 1,052,319 3.8% 3.3% 4.4% (139,647) 17,681 0
Inland Empire
CA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 17 3,426,635 347,188 347,188 10.1% 10.1% 8.4% (82,456) 1,780 0 $16.23
Shopping Centers 1,674 85,140,209 9,506,250 9,804,590 11.5% 12.1% 11.8% 61,876 84,200 93,958 $17.34
Power Centers 40 16,308,970 1,501,885 1,546,350 9.5% 9.7% 8.1% 181,026 0 98,160 $20.49
Malls 24 19,908,650 1,120,465 1,400,241 7.0% 6.7% 5.6% (317,467) 0 0 $20.17
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,755 124,784,464 12,475,788 13,098,369 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% (157,021) 85,980 192,118
Los Angeles
CA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 20 4,159,485 216,369 216,369 5.2% 4.4% 5.2% 149,524 142,065 0 $19.83
Shopping Centers 4,219 146,297,996 9,686,266 9,978,623 6.8% 6.7% 6.8% 83,958 156,188 63,905 $22.64
Power Centers 48 20,546,076 1,092,064 1,169,365 5.7% 5.3% 5.7% (18,164) 0 0 $23.41
Malls 60 47,820,931 1,540,959 1,578,245 3.3% 3.1% 4.0% 61,457 157,626 50,000 $30.19
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
4,347 218,824,488 12,535,658 12,942,602 5.9% 5.8% 5.9% 276,775 455,879 113,905
West U.S. – Pacific
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
West
Oakland/East
Bay CA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 4 812,397 83,205 83,205 10.2% 11.0% 0.0% (4,866) 0 450,000 $31.90
Shopping Centers 850 40,151,527 2,571,991 2,620,325 6.5% 6.5% 7.5% 305,410 4,500 30,154 $21.11
Power Centers 17 6,762,178 191,418 312,729 4.6% 3.9% 6.5% 131,592 0 318,000 $26.03
Malls 15 12,013,927 463,993 463,993 3.9% 5.2% 6.5% (61,904) 0 18,410 $17.59
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
886 59,740,029 3,310,607 3,480,252 5.8% 6.0% 6.4% 370,232 4,500 816,564
West U.S. – Pacific cont.
Orange County
CA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 12 2,625,396 189,765 189,765 7.2% 5.3% 16.8% 58,101 0 50,000 $43.19
Shopping Centers 1,452 63,562,629 3,949,942 4,170,172 6.6% 6.7% 6.6% 47,839 20,222 0 $22.38
Power Centers 25 9,985,076 708,410 825,248 8.3% 6.6% 7.8% (105,117) 0 0 $31.15
Malls 22 18,103,417 641,280 641,280 3.5% 3.6% 3.4% (12,362) 0 0 $33.34
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,511 94,276,518 5,489,397 5,826,465 6.2% 6.1% 6.2% (11,539) 20,222 50,000
Portland OR
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 3 271,931 0 0 0.5% 0.5% 1.2% 3,203 0 0 $32.00
Shopping Centers 719 34,612,203 2,708,730 2,831,236 8.2% 8.3% 8.4% 367,431 340,775 4,700 $17.30
Power Centers 14 6,406,181 372,670 382,433 6.0% 5.5% 5.7% 37,773 0 0 $19.80
Malls 11 8,974,544 329,319 336,604 3.8% 3.6% 4.0% 8,896 0 0 $20.98
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
747 50,264,859 3,410,719 3,550,273 7.1% 7.0% 7.2% 417,303 340,775 4,700
Sacramento
CA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 10 2,494,948 303,787 303,787 12.2% 13.3% 9.6% 11,494 0 0 $16.24
Shopping Centers 1,165 50,660,959 6,738,019 7,071,323 14.0% 13.9% 14.0% 217,877 20,263 5,000 $16.93
Power Centers 29 10,576,764 796,635 897,948 8.5% 8.2% 9.0% 88,426 7,200 5,500 $21.13
Malls 12 9,023,258 661,451 661,451 7.3% 6.5% 6.6% 139,751 242,378 310,285 $26.16
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,216 72,755,929 8,499,892 8,934,509 12.3% 12.1% 12.3% 457,548 269,841 320,785
San Diego CA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 11 1,082,876 46,747 46,747 4.3% 4.5% 2.7% (5,349) 0 0 $24.10
Shopping Centers 1,204 54,174,272 3,946,856 4,159,711 7.7% 7.9% 7.6% 83,656 37,788 110,262 $21.00
Power Centers 23 10,138,861 419,975 527,987 5.2% 5.6% 6.5% 192,060 0 0 $27.17
Malls 18 16,137,243 360,128 369,328 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 119,552 0 0 $23.97
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,256 81,533,252 4,773,706 5,103,773 6.3% 6.5% 6.3% 389,919 37,788 110,262
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
West
San Francisco
CA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 7 1,569,736 69,928 75,128 4.8% 4.9% 5.4% 10,110 6,000 0 $83.20
Shopping Centers 281 9,682,309 488,453 493,453 5.1% 5.3% 5.1% (16,209) 0 0 $26.75
Power Centers 5 1,893,475 63,493 63,493 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% 4,980 0 0 $31.69
Malls 6 5,190,245 126,317 126,317 2.4% 0.9% 0.5% (97,092) 0 0 $30.00
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
299 18,335,765 748,191 758,391 4.1% 3.8% 4.1% (98,211) 6,000 0
West U.S. – Pacific cont.
San Jose/
South Bay CA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 2 547,707 8,298 8,298 1.5% 2.1% 1.2% (2,598) 0 0 $23.45
Shopping Centers 762 29,982,098 1,969,577 2,108,341 7.0% 7.6% 6.9% 125,379 151,448 51,000 $25.24
Power Centers 9 4,049,821 535,320 535,320 13.2% 12.6% 15.8% (38,151) 0 0 $18.73
Malls 12 11,619,106 206,361 206,361 1.8% 1.7% 3.2% 4,067 0 0 $34.01
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
785 46,198,732 2,719,556 2,858,320 6.2% 8.6% 8.2% 88,697 151,448 51,000
Santa Barbara
CA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 N/A
Shopping Centers 165 7,045,677 511,547 548,568 7.8% 7.8% 6.5% 1,307 0 0 $19.79
Power Centers 2 959,167 68,748 68,748 7.2% 6.7% 6.1% (10,080) 0 0 $24.00
Malls 3 1,524,422 38,105 38,105 2.5% 2.5% 0.7% (28,648) 0 0 $51.93
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
170 9,529,266 618,400 655,421 6.9% 6.8% 6.1% (37,421) 0 0
Seattle WA
Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Historical
Vacancy Net
Absorption Deliveries
Under
Const SF
Quoted
Rates
# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac % 2Q
2011
3Q
2010
Specialty Centers 5 1,166,730 39,069 39,069 3.3% 5.4% 3.7% (6,537) 0 0 $14.38
Shopping Centers 1,339 56,871,165 5,601,471 5,705,843 10.0% 10.3% 9.9% 297,548 28,450 66,354 $17.98
Power Centers 15 5,695,126 250,092 250,092 4.4% 4.5% 6.0% 65,732 0 0 $18.52
Malls 22 17,538,648 744,572 755,539 4.3% 4.9% 5.0% 99,586 0 0 $26.35
All Non-Freestanding
Retail
1,381 81,271,669 6,635,204 6,750,543 8.3% 8.7% 8.4% 456,329 28,450 66,354
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
Apparel
• Accessorize opened only two stores this year, but the
London-based chain has announced a goal of reaching
100 units by 2015. We expect 2012 openings to surpass
the 20-unit mark.
• Anthropologie will close 2011 with at least 15 new stores.
Our sources tell us to expect a similar growth rate for the
coming year.
• Even while parent company The Gap is planning on
closing 100 stores or more in the coming months, they
are continuing to grow their active women’s sportswear
concept, Athleta. Athleta should close 2011 with about ten
new stores. We expect growth levels to surpass this in
2012—we anticipate at least 15 units.
• Bebe’s has plans to add a total of 11 new stores in its
current fiscal year, which ends in June 2012.
• Body Central is looking to open as many as 40 new stores
in 2012.
• Casual Male will open about 14 more new stores before the
end of the year, most of which will be their new Destination
XL concept. The chain wants to be opening between 75
and 100 new locations annually by 2013, which leaves the
question as to how many units to expect next year. We
expect as many as 40 new units as Casual Male ramps up
growth of its new concept.
• Cato Corporation’s new accessories concept, Versone
Accessories, is looking to open as many as 50 new stores
over the next 18 months.
• Charlotte Russe will beef up growth in 2012 with as many
as 20 new stores.
• Charming Charlie’s, an accessories concept that typically
uses about 8,000 square feet, will close 2011 with at least
ten new stores. We expect 2012 openings to approach 15
units or more.
• Charming Shoppes will close out 2011 with only five to
seven new stores. We expect similar growth rates for 2012.
• Chico’s will net 21 new units over the next six months.
• Citi Trends is yet another apparel chain that shrunk growth
plans this year; having reduced expansion goals from 70
to 55 locations. We expect Citi Trends to continue to grow
at a conservative pace next year—we expect a minimum
of 50 units.
• David’s Bridal is looking to open 10 new stores in 2012.
• dELIA*s may open as many as 10 new stores in the next
twelve months.
• Dots will close this year with about 25 new stores; next year
they have budgeted for as many as 45 new stores.
• Express will close the year with about 25 new units. Look
for the same in 2012
• Five Below continues aggressive growth in the Midwest.
In Chicago alone, the chain is planning on as many as 60
stores over the next five years. Five Below should close
out 2011 with about 50 new units. We expect this number
to increase to as many as 60 units in 2012.
• Fossil will close this year with about 70 new stores, mostly
at outlet centers. The chain reportedly is looking to boost
this number in 2012—we expect as many as 85 new stores
over the next twelve months.
• Foundry Big & Tall Supply Company is JC Penney’s new
men’s concept. There are ten new stores already in the
pipeline, with openings scheduled heading into early 2012.
These stores use roughly 6,000 square feet of space. The
Foundry has plans to open 300 new stores over the next
five years. 2012 openings will likely top 75; with plans for
150 new stores by 2013.
• Francesca’s Collections plans to open as many as 75 new
stores annually over the next couple of years.
• H&M is looking to close the year with as many as 265 new
stores internationally. It opened 12 new stores in the U.S.
this year. That number will likely exceed 15 next year.
• It’s Fashion Metro should close the year with 21 new units.
We expect this number to approach the 25-unit mark
in 2012.
• Jos. A Banks should close this year with somewhere
between 40 and 50 new stores, including its outlet
concepts. We expect a similar growth rate in 2012.
• The Limited will close this year with 19 new stores. We
expect the same growth rate in 2012.
• Men’s Wearhouse should close 2011 with 20 to 25 new
stores for the year. That being said, next year will see
more remodels than new stores. New unit tallies for 2012
may not reach this year’s levels. Men’s Wearhouse has
announced a goal of 109 new units through 2017.
• Rue21 should close out the year having reached their goal
of 100 new units. We expect next year’s growth levels to be
slightly below this year’s, though this may change should
the economy pick up momentum. Still, we are expecting
somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 new units.
Expansion Notes
The following are just a few of the expansion plans of the retailers and restaurant chains that we are tracking in the marketplace.
This data has been culled from a wide variety of sources, ranging from published reports to SEC filings to market gossip or
confirmed plans shared with us directly by retailers. While we believe that this information is reliable, we make no guarantee as to
the accuracy of this data.
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
• Steele’s plans as many as 38 new stores next year; focusing
growth primarily in the south central United States.
• Tilly’s will close 2011 with roughly 13 new stores and
reportedly is planning to add around 20 units in 2012.
• Urban Outfitters will close this year with about 55 new
stores, including a few locations for their new bridal
concept, Bhldn. We expect at least 35 new units in 2012.
• Wet Seal may open between 25 and 30 new stores in the
coming year.
Automotive
• Advance Auto Parts will open as many as 140 new stores
before the close of 2011. The company will likely keep a
similar pace next year; primarily focusing on the Eastern
United States.
• AutoZone opened nearly 40 stores in the first half of the
year. They will likely close the year with about 70 new
units, well behind the 163 stores opened in 2010. The
chain is shifting its expansion strategy to more ground
leases and land purchases—which will slow development,
so we expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 new
locations in 2012, though 2013 numbers will likely increase
substantially.
• O’Reilly Auto Parts hopes to close this year with as many
as 170 new units. We expect them to open roughly the
same number of stores in 2012.
• Pep Boys will close 2011 with as many as 55 new stores.
Next year, the company has plans for as many as 75 service
and tire centers (which average about 5,000 square feet in
size) and as many as ten supercenters (which are usually
13,000 square feet in size).
Beauty Salons/Supply
• Fantastic Sam’s will likely close out 2011 with just 40 new
locations. We expect this number to increase in 2012
based on reports that the chain’s franchising efforts are up.
We expect at least 60 units in the coming year.
• Great Clips should reach 160 new salons this year and has
a goal of at least 170 new units next.
• Sport Clips is aiming for at least 120 new salons in 2012.
• Ulta will close this year with 61 new stores; we expect a
similar pace of expansion in 2012.
Children’s Apparel/Children’s Specialty
• The Disney Store is back under the Walt Disney
Company’s control and is also back in the marketplace
with a smaller footprint (now about 4,500 square feet)
and new growth plans. They will close this store with
roughly 40 new stores globally, most situated in top malls.
Department Stores
• JC Penney has shifted most of its growth to its new men’s
concept, The Foundry Big & Tall Supply Company. They
opened two new department stores earlier this year, but
we expect remodels to take centerstage in 2012 as the
Plano, Texas-based retailer continues to look to upgrade its
image and land in-store deals with more upscale retailers
like Sephora.
• Kohl’s never slowed growth during the recession,
capitalizing on market conditions to grow its discount
department store concept, though usually in off-mall
sites. The Wisconsin-based chain has plans to close 2011
with at least 40 new stores. Kohl’s is yet another chain
shrinking its format—moving from 90,000 to 65,000 square
feet. Numbers have yet to be released yet for 2012, but we
expect Kohl’s to likely match this year’s growth level.
• Macy’s has plans to open two department stores in New
York, including one new location in the Bronx and one that
will replace an existing store in Bay Shore. The chain also
has plans for new department stores in Victorville (CA),
Grendale (WI), Gurnee Mills (IL) and Salt Lake City. All of
these locations will open in 2013. Macy’s will close the
year with three new Bloomingdale’s Outlet stores and we
expect a similar pace of growth for this concept in 2012.
• Nieman Marcus will open at least three of its discount
concept, Last Call, in 2012 and plans to open at least one
full service department store in Walnut Creek (CA).
• Though it closed its Downtown Indianapolis store this
summer, Nordstrom has opened two new full service
department stores (St. Louis and Nashville) over the past
few months, even while it continues to aggressively expand
its off-price concept, Nordstrom Rack. They should close
the year with three new department stores and somewhere
near 18 new Nordstrom Rack stores. Nordstrom is
reportedly planning about 15 new Rack stores next year
and as many as three more department stores.
• Sak’s OFF 5th concept continues to grow—it will likely add
five new stores annually for the next couple of years.
• Sears remains in contraction mode, though the chain has
announced plans for a new, smaller concept and a focus
on internet sales as part of its turnaround plan. Still, we
expect more closures ahead as Sears continues to post
severe losses and remains one of the most challenged
major retail chains in the marketplace.
• Target should close 2011 with a total of roughly 21 new
stores. The chain is signing new deals for their smaller
urban concept, CityTarget, which will take anywhere from
60,000 to 80,000 square feet as opposed to their typical
footprint of 125,000 square feet or more. Deals have been
inked for multiple stores in both Los Angeles and San
Francisco, as well as for stores in Chicago, Seattle and a
number of other markets. We expect at least 25 to 30 new
stores over the next 18 months.
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
Discounters & Dollar Stores
• 99 Cent Only Stores will close the year with about 16 new
stores. The chain will likely keep the same growth rate for
now, but is slated to boost its growth rate by 10% starting
with fiscal year 2013.
• Big Lots has emerged as one of the biggest users of
second generation big box space and they continue to
expand aggressively. Big Lots should close out 2011 with
at least 90 new stores. This number will likely remain the
same, or decrease slightly, in 2012.
• BJ’s Wholesale Club may begin expanding westward now
that it has been acquired by Leonard Green, but so far
plans call for the chain to only open six new stores next
year—the same level of growth recorded this year.
• Bottom Dollar has plans to open 14 new stores in Ohio and
Pennsylvania in 2012.
• Another non-mall discount department store player,
Burlington Coat Factory, has been actively backfilling
space left behind by players like Mervyn’s, Home Depot
Expo Center, Walmart and K-Mart. BCF typically uses about
80,000 square feet of space and should close this year with
as many as 25 new stores. We have also heard rumors that
the chain may be looking into launching a smaller footprint
concept, possibly pursuing former Borders sites, however,
none of this chatter has yet proven to be true. Right now
plans are calling for as many as 30 new stores in 2012 in
Burlington’s traditional format.
• Costco will close the year with as many as 24 new stores.
The chain is reportedly looking to open as many as 50 new
stores in the next fiscal year.
• Dollar General expects to close this year with 625
new stores. The chain prefers to use a 9,000 square
foot floorplate.
• Dollar Tree will close the year with about 335 new stores.
They typically use between 8,000 and 12,000 square feet
for their namesake concept, but are also growing the
smaller Dollar Tree $1 Stop concept which can go as low
as 4,500 square feet. We expect as many as 320 new
stores in 2012.
• Family Dollar will end this year with about 200 new
stores. The chain is planning on opening as many as 500
new stores in 2012, while likely closing as many as 100
underperforming locations. Family Dollar is looking for
sites in the 7,000 to 9,000 square foot range.
• Famous Labels operates a number of brands; nearly all
of which are growing. Between its namesake brand and
$20 Below concept, Famous Labels will close this year
with as many as 30 new units. Growth has been, more
or less, evenly split between the two concepts. The chain
reportedly currently has 60 stores where leases have been
signed or that are already in development. We expect
2012 openings to reach the 40-unit level.
• Five & Dime General Store is looking to open as many as
five new stores annually in tourism-heavy marketplaces.
• Fred’s is looking to add up to 25 new stores in 2012, mostly
in the Southern United States.
• Gordman’s opened seven stores this year; mostly in the
Midwest and Southeast. We expect as many as ten new
units in 2012.
• Ross will close the year with as many as 60 new Dress for
Less stores and 20 dd’s Discounts stores. We expect a
similar growth pace in 2012.
• Savers and its affiliate Value Village are looking to expand
aggressively in the Midwest and East Coast in 2012.
Between the two discount chains, they are looking to open
at least 25 new stores next year. Their goal is to add at
least 100 new units through 2015.
• Shopko is expanding its smaller format HomeTown stores.
The typical Shopko footprint was 80,000 square feet.
HomeTown uses about 35,000 square feet. So far (seven
units), Shopko had been converting existing sites to the
new format and subleasing the remaining space. Going
forward they will be looking for new sites. We expect
between five and ten new Midwest stores next year.
• Stage Stores operates under a number of banners,
including Beall’s, Burke’s Outlets, Goody’s, Palais Royale
and Peebles. The chain may end this year with as many as
40 new units across all of its concepts. Affiliate Burke’s and
Beale’s Outlets are planning as many as 49 new stores for
2012. We expect to see as many as 20 more units across
some of Stage’s other brands.
• Stein Mart will close this year with at least five new units.
We expect as many as ten in 2012.
• TJX will close the year with roughly 115 new stores
(including TJMaxx, Marshall’s and HomeGoods stores).
This is despite shuttering the AJ Wright concept and over
70 stores earlier this year. With AJ Wright out of the picture,
many analysts believe that TJX will boost growth next
year. We have yet to see any new growth plans, but are
expecting as many as 125 new stores across all of TJX’s
banners in 2012.
Drug Stores/Convenience
• 7 Eleven continues aggressive growth both organically
and via acquisition. This year alone, throughout the United
States and Canada, it has been on a pace to add 500
stores. The chain has plans for as many as 500 stores
in California, Oregon and Washington over the next five
years. In New York City alone, 7 Eleven will open as many
as 100 stores over the next five years.
• CVS will close 2011 with between 225 and 250
new stores. We expect a similar growth rate for
2012, though acquisitions could boost that total.
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
• Rite Aid continues to struggle with credit issues and has
been closing more units than it opens lately. This year it
opened ten combo stores along with Save-A-Lot. Other
than that, it closed about 50 locations. Look for the same
pattern in 2012. Until Rite Aid emerges from its credit
issues, the chain will be in consolidation mode.
• Walgreen’s is planning on boosting its unit count by about
200 drug stores in their upcoming fiscal year (which began
in September). That being said, Walgreen’s has also
aggressively expanded via acquisition in recent years.
Though the drug store herd is thinned out, we still wouldn’t
rule out the possibility of Walgreen’s picking up a few
smaller regional or local players as well.
Electronics Stores/Computer Specialty
• Apple closed the 2011 fiscal year (ending in September)
with about 40 new stores. The chain will easily match that
in 2012, though it is also boosting international growth.
• Best Buy is looking to cut at least 10% from its typical
store sizes; looking in many cases to sublease spaces of
anywhere from 5,000 to 10,000 square feet within existing
big box locations. No clear pattern has emerged yet for
sublease tenants—Best Buy will reportedly look at anyone
from restaurant to grocery users. While the chain is scaling
back its footprint from the 30,000 to 40,000 square foot
range down to 25,000 to 30,000 square feet, it also recently
announced plans to close all 11 of its European box stores.
Best Buy is expanding on one front however. It has plans
to boost its small (typically 3,000 square feet or less) Best
Buy Mobile concept by as many as 800 units over the next
couple of years. Best Buy Mobile will close 2011 with
about 150 new stores. We expect this number to approach
200 in 2012.
• The electronics sector, with the exception of HHGregg, is
in contraction mode. HHGregg will likely open as many
as 45 new stores in 2012; all of which will be east of
the Mississippi.
• Microsoft has continues to drag its feet on new retail stores;
though we do expect them to pick up the pace in 2012.
The chain reportedly wants to add at least 75 new stores
over the next three years.
Footwear
• Finish Line will close this year with just five to ten new
stores, but reportedly is looking to return to growth next
year. Numbers have not been released, but we expect a
minimum of ten new stores in 2012.
• Red Wing Shoes is planning on opening as many as
125 new stores over the next five years; primarily in the
Northeastern United States.
• Skechers will close out the year with about 30 new
stores. We expect 30 to 35 new units in 2012.
Grocery
• Aldi has added more than 280 new stores throughout the
United States over the past three years. They will close
2011 with about 80 new locations. Typical Aldi footprints
run about 17,000 square feet. The chain is increasingly
looking west of the Mississippi and we expect as many as
95 new stores in 2012.
• Independent once again after engineering its own buyout
from Supervalu, upscale grocer Bristol Farms is looking
to expand by as many two units annually over the next
couple of years. The California-based chain typically
uses between 7,000 and 30,000 square feet in high profile
urban locations.
• The Fresh Market, with its footprint of roughly 21,000
square feet, is growing. They will close with as many as
14 new units this year. It has plans for as many as 20 new
stores in the next year or so.
• Grocery Outlet will finish 2011 with as many as 20 new
stores. They will continue with the same rate of expansion
in the Pacific states in 2012—we expect them to close next
year with as many as 25 new units, though if this chain
were to go public (and we have heard rumors), their
pace of expansion and geographic scope would likely
expand significantly.
• Marsh is looking to open as many as ten new stores over
the next 18 months.
• Natural Grocers will close 2011 with at least five new stores.
We expect the Colorado-based chain to raise that level to
seven or eight new units next year as they seek to grow in
the Southwest and Midwest.
• Roundy’s closes out 2011 with three new stores in Illinois.
We expect a similar level of Midwestern growth in 2012.
• Smart & Final Extra has plans for as many as ten new
stores in 2012; all of which will be in Arizona, California
or Nevada.
• Sprouts Farmers Market continues to grow organically
(excuse the bad pun) and through acquisition. We expect
growth in 2012 to accelerate with the chain likely adding
somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 new units.
• Southern California regional player Stater Brothers began
the year with the goal of adding as many as ten new stores
over the next few years… if the economy picks up. It
hasn’t. They won’t. Growth totals are more likely to be
one or two new stores annually for now.
• Sunflower Farmers Markets continues to grow aggressively
in new markets. We expect as many as 20 new
units in 2012.
• Supervalu has shifted all of their growth to their Save-ALot
format. They expect to close 2011 with about 160 new
stores. The chain wants to add 1,200 new stores nationally
through the end of 2015. Save-A-Lot locations typically
average 15,000 square feet in size. 2012 openings should
total in the area of 80 to 90 units.
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
• Trader Joe’s had opened 15 stores by mid-year 2011, but
is ramping up further growth. They are also looking at
expanding beyond their typical 10,000 to 14,000 square
foot floorplate in many markets. The chain is growing
strong in the Central United States, having recently added
multiple units in Texas and Kansas.
• Walmart’s new 15,000 square foot Walmart Express
format recently debuted in Arkansas and a handful of rural
markets, but is poised for strong urban growth ahead. By
the close of the year there may be 20 new stores open.
Walmart is planning up to 120 large format stores, 10
Sam’s Clubs and as many as 30 small (Walmart Express)
and medium (Walmart Neighborhood) format stores in
fiscal 2012. For fiscal 2013, Walmart is planning as many
as 135 large format stores, 15 Sam’s Clubs and as many as
150 small and medium format groceries.
• Whole Foods has leases for at least 61 future stores in
place through 2014. We expect at least 20 new units
in 2012.
• Winco is entering the Arizona market with plans for as
many as five stores nearing the 100,000 square foot range.
• Winn Dixie is planning five new grocery stores next year.
Home Improvement/Home Furnishings
• Aaron’s is planning to open as many as 90 companyowned
and 75 franchises during its fiscal year. Some
of these will be via its new smaller concept HomeSmart,
which uses between 4,000 and 6,000 square feet. Aaron’s
typical footprint is 8,000 square feet.
• Ace Hardware had planned to open as many as 110 units
this year; we think they will fall just short of that goal. Look
for a minimum of 90 new stores in 2012.
• America Freight Furniture & Mattress will close 2011 with a
total of 24 new stores and we expect new store opening in
2012 to approach 30 units.
• Bed Bath & Beyond opened 40 new stores last year. They
will close this year with about 45 new stores. We expect
them to open as many as 50 units in 2012. That being said,
these openings also account for the chain’s buybuyBaby,
Harmon Face Values and Christmas Tree Shop concepts.
Over the past couple of years, BB&B namesake stores
have typically accounted for about half of this growth,
buybuyBaby has accounted for about 40% of this total, and
the other two concepts were responsible for the rest.
• Cost Plus is returning to growth mode after spending most
of the past five years closing underperformers. The chain
may open as many as ten new units in 2012.
• Do It Best has averaged 50 to 80 new stores in each of the
last few years. The chain is projecting 60 new stores in the
coming year.
• HomeGoods, TJX’s concept, should close 2011 with about
28 new locations. We expect this number to range between
30 and 35 in 2012.
• Kirkland’s will close 2011 with as many as 45 new stores
and a net overall unit gain of about 20. We expect the
chain to boost this total slightly next year, with a net gain of
as many as 25 units in 2012.
• Lowe’s began the year with plans to open 22 new stores.
They did, but then they also announced plans to close 20
stores in September. We don’t expect growth from the
home improvement giant in 2012. In fact, we expect Lowe’s
to likely continue to close underperforming locations in the
coming year.
• Mattress Firm is looking to expand by as many as 1,900
new locations over the next six years. The chain will
close this year with approximately 100 new stores, but will
accelerate growth in 2012.
• Orchard Supply Hardware (OSH) will close this year with
just one new store and only has one currently planned for
2012. However, its recent spinoff from Sears and rumors of
a planned IPO could change this in the months ahead.
• Pier 1 is returning to growth mode. The chain has plans for
as many as 80 new stores over the next five years. They
will close 2011 with about 12 new units. We expect 2012
openings to approach 20.
• Relax the Back currently has about 110 units but has a
long-term goal of reaching 250 (over the next ten years).
We expect as many as 20 new stores in 2012.
• Rent-A-Center and its subsidiary, ColorTyme, will close out
this year with about 25 new locations throughout the United
States. We expect as many as 30 new store openings
in 2012.
• Select Comfort will close 2011 with about 20 new locations.
We expect a similar pace of expansion for the coming year.
• Sleep Train operates a number of concepts, mostly
in the West. Between all of its concepts, we expect a
minimum of ten new units next year, though the chain does
continue to grow through acquisition and this may slow
organic growth.
• Sur La Table will open as many as 15 new stores in 2012;
focusing on major markets like Atlanta, Boston, Chicago,
New York and San Diego.
• Tuesday Morning expects to close 2011 with a net gain of
at least ten new stores. The chain continues to look for
new space, but also to close weaker stores. We expect a
similar growth rate next year.
Jewelry/Luxury Retailers
• Ben Bridge Jewelers is the U.S. franchisee for Pandora
Jewelry. Between its namesake concept and a new
Pandora concept store it is launching, look to Ben Bridge
to open as many as 15 new mall locations in 2012.
• Coach is planning for as many as 40 new stores in the
coming year, about half of which will be their new men’s
store concept.
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
• Kate Spade is planning on 30 new stores over the
coming year.
• Kay Jewelers and its affiliate, Jared the Galleria of Jewelry,
are planning on as many as 20 new stores between the two
concepts in 2012.
• Tiffany continues to slowly expand its domestic presence;
the chain will close the year with four new U.S. stores. We
expect as many as five new units in 2012.
• Vera Bradley will open as many as 20 new locations over
the next twelve months.
Media Retailers
• Books-A-Million is one of the few retailers left in this
category standing… much less looking to grow. The chain
had tried to acquire 30 former Borders sites at auction
earlier this year but was rebuffed. Still, they are rapidly
signing one off deals for some of these sites and have
emerged as the largest user—so far—of former Borders
sites. It remains unclear as to how many of these sites
BAM will be able to land, but we would not be surprised to
see this chain opening as many as 30 new stores over the
next 18 months.
• The good news? GameStop will close 2011 with about 200
new openings. The bad news? GameStop will close 2011
with about 200 closings. Looking forward, it is hard to see
this trend fading. Video game retailers have not suffered
the same fate at the hands of streaming internet as record
or bookstores, but the writing seems to be on the wall
unless video game retailers can find a way to get ahead of
the game. Used video game sales is one tactic boosting
sales in the meantime.
Office Supplies
• Office Depot has lowered its typical floorplate from 24,000
to 17,000 square feet and is also testing a 5,000 square
foot format. We expect most of Office Depot’s capital
expenditure budget to be spent this year on remodels, with
growth taking a backseat. The chain should close 2011
with 12 new stores throughout North America, but also
reportedly has about 100 leases coming up for renewal;
we expect Office Depot to close more stores than it opens
in 2012. If there is any growth, it will likely come from the
new 5,000 square foot concept.
• OfficeMax also has about 100 leases coming up for renewal
in 2012. The chain will finish this year with only one new
store and 20 closures. We see the pace of closures
accelerating in the coming year.
• Staples had entered 2011 with a goal of 40 new stores for
both the U.S. and Canada, but will end the year with about
half that number. The chain continues to drop the size of
its superstores, especially as it continues to grow its online
market share. They have dropped their 18,000 square
foot template to 16,000 square feet and we would not be
surprised to see it shrink further. Numbers have not been
released for next year, but we suspect growth levels will fall
to as low as 15 new units.
Pet Stores/Supplies
• Pet Food Express will close this year with five new stores.
We expect as many as eight new units in 2012.
• Pet Supermarket will close this year with about 24 new
units and plans to keep the same pace in 2012.
• PETCO has plans for as many as 50 units in the coming
year.
• Petland will close this year with about 15 new units. Look
for the same growth level in 2012.
• Petsense is currently budgeting for as many as 100 new
stores over the next few years. They will close this year
with as many as 50 new locations. We expect a minimum
of 25 new units annually over the next couple of years.
• PetSmart has opened roughly 35 stores in the past year
and should match that pace in 2012. Current plans call for
as many as 50 new stores in 2012.
Restaurants
• Applebee’s will open at least 33 new franchised locations
in 2012.
• Au Bon Pain will close out this year with about 20 new
units. Look for similar growth in 2012.
• Beautiful Brands is on par to meet its goal of opening 74
restaurants this year across all of its brands. The chain is
looking to ramp up growth in 2012—we expect at least 85
new units next year.
• Bob Evans is focusing mostly on remodels; but may open
as many as six new units in the coming year.
• Bojangles continues to grow its fast food chicken concept
in the Southeast. But the chain is also looking to expand
in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in the coming
year via franchise growth. We expect a minimum of 30 new
units in the coming year, though this number could increase
substantially depending upon the success of franchising
initiatives. In Atlanta alone, Bojangles is planning 25 new
units over the next five years.
• Brooklyn Water Bagel is former CNN talk show host Larry
King’s concept. The chain is looking to grow on both
coasts aggressively. They are hoping to have 400 units
open or under development by 2016.
• Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar may close 2011 with as
many as 110 new restaurants. The chain now has about
775 units and has a goal of reaching 1,000 restaurants
within the next two years. We expect even stronger growth
in 2012, with as many as 125 new units coming online.
• Cheesecake Factory opened nine new restaurants this
year. We expect five to seven new units in 2012.
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
• Chick-fil-A should close this year with about 90 new
restaurants, over 70 of which were standalone locations.
Last year the chain opened 80 units. In 2012, we expect
them to approach the century mark.
• Chipotle will close out 2011 with about 145 new stores
between its namesake concept and their recently launched
Asian fast casual concept, ShopHouse Southeast Asian
Kitchen. Between the two concepts, we expect openings
to increase in 2012. We expect as many as 160 new units
next year.
• Church’s Chicken is looking to boost its franchise
presence in the Midwest and Southern United States.
Actual development deals and growth projections have not
been released; but we expect a minimum of 25 new units
in 2012.
• Cici’s Pizza is aggressively expanding and has plans to
add as many as 500 new restaurants over the next eight to
ten years.
• Corner Bakery currently has 45 stores in development;
most of which will be delivered over the next 18 months.
• Cousin Vinny’s added two new Miami area pizza
restaurants and ten new units in Ohio in 2011. We expect
similar growth levels in 2012.
• The Cracker Barrel has maintained a pace of about 10 to
15 new units annually over the past few years and will likely
keep this pace in 2012.
• Darden is planning on picking up expansion across all of
its brands (including Olive Garden, Red Lobster, LongHorn
Steakhouse, etc.). The chain has plans to add 500
restaurants across all of its brands over the next five years.
• Dave & Buster’s is planning on at least seven new locations
through the close of 2012.
• Denny’s is planning to open as many as 75 new stores in
the coming year.
• Dickie’s BBQ Pit continues aggressive growth—the chain
has plans to add as many as 155 new units through the
end of 2012.
• Doc Popcorn is a new small concept (just 160 square feet)
looking to expand via franchisees by as many as 50 units
in 2012.
• Domino’s continues to focus on international growth;
they will close this year with as many as 300 new pizza
restaurants though most are overseas.
• Dunkin Donuts netted nearly 60 new stores during the third
quarter alone. They chain has been aggressively looking
to boost franchise growth in a number of existing and new
markets. Many analysts believe that this current growth rate
may double next year. Plans call for the chain to add between
200 and 250 units both this year and heading into 2012.
• East Coast Wings & Grill will close this year with about 10
new units. Expect the chain to open as many as 15 units
in 2012; nearly all of which will be located in the Southeast
United States.
• Einstein Noah should close out 2011 having reached its
goal of 90 new units across all of its bagel concepts. We
expect next year’s growth levels to be at, or slightly below,
this year’s totals.
• Famous Dave’s is downsizing new locations from the 5,000
to 6,000 square foot range to about half this size. They are
planning on adding a minimum of 70 new units through
2015, but this number only reflects current commitments
and will surely grow. The chain reportedly would like to see
a minimum of 100 new restaurants annually over the next
few years.
• Firehouse Subs will have opened at least 80 new locations
by New Year’s Eve, but the chain remains extremely
opportunistic and may even surpass this number over the
final six weeks of the year. The chain wants to grow to
2,000 units, up from its roughly 400-store count today. It
has aggressively been signing franchise development
deals with over 1,700 inked for delivery over the next ten
years. We expect Firehouse to surpass the 100 new unit
mark in 2012.
• Five Guys Burgers and Fries continues to grow at such
a rate that we can’t keep up with their unit counts. Our
last tally was that they had opened 150 new units so far in
2011, but this number may be low. We expect as many as
200 new restaurants from them in 2012.
• Freebirds World Burrito continues to aggressively grow in
California—they will close 2011 with 16 new units in the
Golden State alone. We expect a similar growth pace for
2012.
• Genghis Grill closes 2011 with roughly 40 new units; we
expect the chain to open as many as 45 new restaurants
in 2012. Washington DC is one of their primary growth
regions—they plan on at least 15 new units there over the
next three years.
• Haagen Dazs hopes to close the year having reached their
goal of 25 new units. We expect this level to drop in 2012
with the chain likely delivering between 15 and 20 new
stores.
• Huddle House has plans to open 17 new locations in the
coming year.
• Hurricane Grill & Wings, which opened 15 new restaurants
in 2010, will reach roughly 24 new units this year and
should surpass that in 2012. We expect as many as 30
new restaurants in the coming year, mostly east of the
Mississippi.
• IHOP is looking to open as many as 45 new units annually
over the next three years.
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
• Jack in the Box will close out 2011 with between 30 and 35
new restaurants and as many as 60 new Qdoba locations.
We expect at least 20 new Jack in the Box restaurants in
2012. Qdoba will likely add at least 40 more units.
• Jack’s Wayback Burgers continues aggressive expansion
in the Eastern United States. The chain is looking to close
out this year with 100 new units.
• Jamba Juice should close the year near its goal of 70 new
stores for the year. We expect next year’s growth levels to
be at, or slightly below, this year’s levels.
• Krispy Kreme should close out 2011 with about 25 total new
units between company-owned and franchise expansion.
The chain has announced its intention to open as many
as 65 more company-owned locations over the next three
years. Between these plans, and franchise growth, we
expect as many as 40 new units to come online in 2012.
• Krystal plans on growing by as many as 380 units over the
next five years. That being said, the chain will be focusing
on franchisees for expansion so this number will be
completely dependent upon the success of their franchise
initiatives. We expect somewhere in the neighborhood of
50 new units in 2012.
• LongHorn Steakhouse is about to go into aggressive
growth mode. Parent company Darden wants to grow the
concept by as many as 450 units over the next decade.
• Marco’s Pizza will close out this year with as many as
60 new restaurants. They have about 900 franchise
agreements in the pipeline, though the timeline for these
remains uncertain. That being said, we expect as many as
100 new units in 2012.
• McDonald’s hopes to close 2011 with about 150 new
domestic stores (the Golden Arches will also be adding
over 1,100 new international units during this time frame).
The chain continues to pursue an aggressive remodel plan,
with plans to revamp as many as 600 locations before the
end of the year. We expect as many as 170 new domestic
units for 2012.
• Menchie’s wants to add as many as 40 new yogurt shops
over the next few years.
• Morton’s will close the year with one new steakhouse, but
reportedly has plans to ramp up growth in 2012. Still, we
would be surprised to see more than two or three new
eateries next year.
• NakedPizza has signed more than 400 development deals
with franchisees and hopes to add most of these over the
next three years. They will close 2011 with as many as
40 new restaurants, but we see this number increasing
substantially next year. We expect as many as 60 new
units in 2012 across a range of markets.
• Panchero’s Mexican Grill should close the year with ten
new units. Look for similar growth in 2012.
• Panda Express is in hyper growth mode. The chain
is planning on 950 new units through 2015. We expect
somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 new restaurants in
2012, if not more.
• Papa John’s should end this year with as many as 100 new
units across North America. This number will likely drop
in 2012; we expect growth to be in the 50-unit range. That
being said, Papa John’s does have over 270 units for which
development deals have been signed with franchisees—
but 80% of these are slated for 2014 deliveries.
• Papa Murphy’s will have opened a total of about 100 new
restaurants by the time this year ends. Plans call for as
many as 150 units in 2012.
• P.F. Chang’s should close out 2011 with five new restaurants
and eight additional Pei Wei locations. We expect 2012
growth levels to be roughly the same.
• Pizza Ranch wants to open 25 new restaurants annually
over the next few years.
• Pluckers Wings Bar has opened three new restaurants in
2011, but is looking for aggressive growth in Texas over the
coming year. We expect a minimum of five new units from
this chain in 2012.
• Popeye’s Fried Chicken should close this year with about
80 new domestic units, though the chain also continues to
close underperformers. Popeye’s is growing primarily via
franchising and has stated it wants to aggressively boost
growth. We expect as many as 100 new units in 2012,
though this number will be dependent upon the success of
parent company AFC Enterprises’ franchising efforts.
• Quaker Steak N’ Lube opened eight restaurants in 2011.
The chain has development deals in place for at least 35
more units over the next five years.
• Quizno’s should close out this year with about 100 new
units, many of which will be situated within gas stations
or convenience stores. With its new focus on expanding
within those sites, we expect franchise efforts to pick up
further in the months ahead. We anticipate a minimum of
125 new units for 2012.
• Red Mango will close this year with roughly 100 new units.
It is unclear whether they will open this many yogurt shops
in 2012—it will depend largely on franchising efforts. We
expect a minimum of 50 new units, though this number
may increase.
• Red Robin is launching a new smaller-format fast casual
concept to enter the burger wars. Plans currently call for
as many as 15 new restaurants next year using a new
smaller prototype in the 3,000 square foot range.
• Ruby Tuesday will focus its growth in 2012 on its new fast
casual Mexican concept, Lime Fresh. The chain will open
at least eight new restaurants in the coming year. They are
also looking to grow their Marlin & Ray’s seafood concept.
This will be done through a mix of re-branding existing
Ruby Tuesday’s locations and new openings.
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
• Schlotzsky’s will close out this year with about 35 new
sandwich shops. We expect as many as 45 in 2012.
• Shula Burgers is former Miami Dolphins coach Don Shula’s
venture into the fast casual burger wars. They are focusing
initial growth in Florida, with the goal of having 100 units
open or under development by 2016.
• Sir Pizza continues to grow in the south Florida
marketplace; the chain will close this year with as many as
12 new restaurants. We expect at least six more units, if
not more, in 2012.
• Smashburger, like Five Guys Burgers & Fries, is expanding
at such a clip that we can’t keep track. Back in May, we
were aware of 463 development agreements in place.
That number has since grown. They will close 2011 with
something approaching 150 new restaurants. We expect
as many as 200 in 2012 and even more in 2013.
• Sonic closes out 2011 with about 40 new drive-in
restaurants. We expect growth levels for 2012 to be slightly
below this year’s growth and are expecting roughly 30
new units.
• Starbucks is back in growth mode again. They will close
this year with about 100 new domestic locations. The chain
is planning at least 400 new locations throughout North
America in 2012. About 200 of these will be in the United
States. Their recent acquisition of Evolution Juice will
mean that the Seattle-based coffee giant will be invading
Jamba Juice’s territory in the coming year. Starbucks has
yet to announce expansion plans for this new concept, but
it could mean hundreds of stores as early as next year.
• Straw Hat Pizza has plans to grow by at least 70 units over
the next two years.
• Subway should end this year with as many as 1,100 new
units throughout North America. We expect similar growth
in 2012.
• Texas Roadhouse should reach their goal of 20 new
restaurants by the end of this year. We expect this total
to increase in 2012. We expect at least 25 to 30 new
restaurants in the next year.
• T.G.I. Friday’s has plans to add as many as 182 new
units over the next three years; mostly via franchisees.
2012 openings will account for a minimum of 20 new
restaurants, though this number may grow depending on
franchising success.
• Tim Horton’s should close this year with as many as 90
new U.S. locations. The Canadian donut giant has plans to
open as many as 300 new donut shops in the coming year,
nearly all of which will be in the Midwest or Northeastern
United States.
• Tropical Smoothie Café will close the year with about 30
new units. Look for this franchise-driven chain to add
about the same in 2012.
• Wahoo’s Fish Tacos is planning 100 new franchise units
nationally over the next five years.
• Wendy’s will close out 2011 with about 65 new stores
throughout North America. About 20 of these locations are
company-owned. We expect an increased pace of growth
next year.
• Which Wich will close out the year with 42 new units. We
expect the Texas-based chain to boost growth levels in
2012 as it expands into new markets like Atlanta, Chicago,
Cleveland, Omaha, Salt Lake City, San Francisco and
Seattle. We expect as many as 50 new restaurants in 2012.
• White Castle plans on opening about a dozen stores
annually throughout the Midwest over the next few years.
• Wingstop is budgeting for as many as 50 new restaurants
annually for each of the next three years. In Baltimore
alone, the chain has a deal for as many as 20 new units
over the next decade. Wingstop is also planning on at
least 20 units in south Florida over the next five years.
• WOW! Café & Wingery has been rapidly expanding on
college campuses (it opened more than 20 this year), but
has only opened a few freestanding locations. We expect
continued strong growth in 2012 with the chain likely
exceeding 25 new units.
• Yogurtland has plans to open 550 new stores
through 2015.
Specialty Retail/Crafts
• Anna’s Linens will open just over 30 new stores by the
close of 2011. We expect a similar level of growth in 2012.
• Edible Arrangements has plans to open as many as 150
new units.
• H&R Block is hoping to open as many as 100 new franchise
locations over the next 18 months.
• Jo-Ann Fabrics will close out 2011 with about 60 new units.
We see their growth levels increasing in 2012 thanks to
their recent buyout from Leonard Green and infusion of
cash. We expect between 65 and 70 new stores in 2012.
• Smile Brands is a dental chain that primarily locates within
shopping centers. Their growth goal for 2011 was to reach
40 new units. We expect this number to increase to as
many as 50 new dental offices in 2012.
• The UPS Store will close 2011 with about 100 new stores.
This growth pace is expected to increase next year, with
opportunities for growth coming from planned U.S. Postal
service cutbacks and closures. This trend will likely also
benefit FedEx Office. FedEx Office is on pace to close this
year with about 15 new units.
• The Vitamin Shoppe will open 48 stores this fiscal year.
Chainlinks Retail Advisors
U.S. National Retail Report
Sporting Goods
• Academy Sports was recently acquired by private equity
firm KKR. This firm has a strong history of growing
retailers. Academy Sports will close this year with at least
nine new stores and current plans call for about ten new
units in 2012. However, in light of the recent acquisition,
we would not be surprised at all if this number increased
substantially going forward.
• Bass Pro Shops will close this year with two of its new
megastores. The chain has begun development on sites
in Memphis and Northern New Jersey, though it may not
be until 2013 that either of these stores are delivered.
• Big 5 Sporting Goods will close 2011 with between 10 and
12 new stores. We expect a similar growth rate for 2012.
• Cabela’s closes 2011 with five new stores. We expect
three or four additional large format locations in 2012, but
the chain is also experimenting with a smaller format store.
We expect this new format to drive growth in the future,
with at least five or six new stores next year.
• Dick’s Sporting Goods has a long-term goal of reaching
900 units nationally. They will close out 2011 with about
35 new locations. Growth rates will increase in 2012—we
expect at least 40 new stores.
• Golf Galaxy will close the year with only three new stores;
we expect a similar growth rate in 2012.
• Golfsmith is planning on as many as 14 new stores through
the end of 2012.
• Hibbett Sports will close 2011 with over 50 new locations
and is planning on accelerating its pace of growth next
year. We expect as many as 55 new stores in 2012.
• Olympia Sports is planning on opening as many as 30
stores in 2012.
• REI should close out this year with about eight new stores.
There are at least two already in the pipeline for early 2012
delivery; we expect this chain to open as many as ten new
stores in the coming year.
• The Sports Authority will look to its smaller concept, S.A.
Elite concept, for some of its growth in the coming year.
These stores range from 10,000 to 15,000 square feet in
size. Four stores are slated to open before the close of the
year. We expect this number to at least double next year.
That being said, the chain continues to grow its namesake
brand. Sports Authority will close this year with between
15 and 20 new units. We expect growth in 2012 to surpass
these levels, with as many as 25 new stores possibly
coming online.
Source: Terranomics Research/Costar Group